Ethereum #ETH Shanghai upgrade will arrive in about 8 hours
This post collects some ideas and useful tools, including the following:
Upgrade content introduction
Possible impact of the upgrade
LSD Project Focus
Monitoring Tools
Shanghai upgrade content:
EIP-3651: Warm COINBASE
EIP-3855: PUSH0 instruction
EIP-3860: Limit and meter initcode
EIP-4895: Beacon chain push withdrawals as operations
EIP-6049: Deprecate SELF-DESTRUCT
The most noteworthy of these is
EIP-4895: Open staking withdrawals
The first thing to know about opening withdrawals is that there are full withdrawals and partial withdrawals. Partial withdrawals are to withdraw only the profit portion, and full withdrawals are to exit the validator node. Currently, most people assume that the profit portion will be withdrawn in full, because there is no profit in keeping it.
The profit portion is 1,131,049 ETH. If, in the worst case scenario, all of these ETH are transferred to CEX and sold, based on past data, it may lead to a drop of about 10% (not counting the part sold by others). Of course, it is still unknown what proportion of these ETH will actually be sold.
Next, we need to explore how motivated all stakers are to sell (including full and partial withdrawals). Here we simply analyze the original cost of staking. Data shows that about half of the staked ETH is profitable at the current price. It can be seen that there are a large number of ETH staked between 500 and 700 (about 2M). These people are currently making huge profits and may have a greater motivation to sell. However, many early stakers are also ETH believers, and it may be a tug-of-war between faith and profit.
Currently #AAVE there is 1.8M ETH supply and the interest rate is 2.33%, which is lower than the profit of ETH staking. After ETH staking opens withdrawals, AAVE's TVL may be lost in large quantities before the interest rate finds a balance.
The withdrawal time of each decentralized LSD is:
LDO: Expected to be mid-May
FRAX: Unknown
RPL: Early April
The first project to open withdrawals may grab more ETH TVL
CEX LSD withdrawal opening time:
Binance: It seems to be within a week of the upgrade
Kraken: Unknown but all must be presented
Coinbase: Several weeks
Kraken will shut down its staking business due to the US ban. It is worth noting where its 7% market share will go.
tool:
ETH staking data:
https://dune.com/hildobby/eth2-staking
https://dune.com/21shares_research/shanghai-upgrade-coundown
Upgrade countdown and withdrawal monitoring:
https://wenmerge.com/
https://beaconcha.in/validators/withdrawals
Node monitoring:
https://app.metrika.co/ethereum/dashboard/network-upgrade?tr=1d
