Ethereum #ETH Shanghai upgrade will arrive in about 8 hours

This post collects some ideas and useful tools, including the following:

  1. Upgrade content introduction

  2. Possible impact of the upgrade

  3. LSD Project Focus

  4. Monitoring Tools

Shanghai upgrade content:

  • EIP-3651: Warm COINBASE

  • EIP-3855: PUSH0 instruction

  • EIP-3860: Limit and meter initcode

  • EIP-4895: Beacon chain push withdrawals as operations

  • EIP-6049: Deprecate SELF-DESTRUCT

The most noteworthy of these is

EIP-4895: Open staking withdrawals

The first thing to know about opening withdrawals is that there are full withdrawals and partial withdrawals. Partial withdrawals are to withdraw only the profit portion, and full withdrawals are to exit the validator node. Currently, most people assume that the profit portion will be withdrawn in full, because there is no profit in keeping it.

The profit portion is 1,131,049 ETH. If, in the worst case scenario, all of these ETH are transferred to CEX and sold, based on past data, it may lead to a drop of about 10% (not counting the part sold by others). Of course, it is still unknown what proportion of these ETH will actually be sold.

Next, we need to explore how motivated all stakers are to sell (including full and partial withdrawals). Here we simply analyze the original cost of staking. Data shows that about half of the staked ETH is profitable at the current price. It can be seen that there are a large number of ETH staked between 500 and 700 (about 2M). These people are currently making huge profits and may have a greater motivation to sell. However, many early stakers are also ETH believers, and it may be a tug-of-war between faith and profit.

Currently #AAVE there is 1.8M ETH supply and the interest rate is 2.33%, which is lower than the profit of ETH staking. After ETH staking opens withdrawals, AAVE's TVL may be lost in large quantities before the interest rate finds a balance.

The withdrawal time of each decentralized LSD is:

  • LDO: Expected to be mid-May

  • FRAX: Unknown

  • RPL: Early April

The first project to open withdrawals may grab more ETH TVL

CEX LSD withdrawal opening time:

  • Binance: It seems to be within a week of the upgrade

  • Kraken: Unknown but all must be presented

  • Coinbase: Several weeks

Kraken will shut down its staking business due to the US ban. It is worth noting where its 7% market share will go.

tool:

  • ETH staking data:

    • https://dune.com/hildobby/eth2-staking

    • https://dune.com/21shares_research/shanghai-upgrade-coundown

  • Upgrade countdown and withdrawal monitoring:

    • https://wenmerge.com/

    • https://beaconcha.in/validators/withdrawals

  • Node monitoring:

    • https://app.metrika.co/ethereum/dashboard/network-upgrade?tr=1d

#eth2.0 #shapella #BTC #Binance