January 23 was destined to be an extraordinary day. First, Grayscale ETF led Bitcoin to fall in the early morning, breaking the important support of 40,000 points, and short-term stood at the 395 bull-bear line; in the evening, affected by the negative impact of OKX, the emotions were superimposed, Bitcoin fell below 395, and pressed down to the second support level of 385. The altcoins generally fell, and the overall decline was far greater than Bitcoin; at the same time, the US stock market was about to open at night, and the ETF market was expected to lead to new selling pressure. In short, misfortunes never come alone, and emotions are out of control! Here, we remind you to be calm when the market rises sharply, and calm down when the market falls sharply, otherwise it is easy to make mistakes in operation, so do a review analysis first.
1. Why did the stock price fall? Bad news
1. The OKX 50% stock index was cut in half due to the lawsuit filed against the listed currency ICE. In my opinion, this is not a big deal, nor is it a long-term negative. It is just a news demand for technical short selling.
2. The continuous selling pressure on the Grayscale ETF is said to be actually the selling pressure of FTX to repay its debts. There are inflows and outflows of 11 ETFs, and the total funds on the market are flowing in.
3. Mentougou suddenly announced that it would sell 200,000 bitcoins to repay debts. It seems like taking advantage of the situation. They announced this when there was real selling pressure, which is obviously bearish.
2. Market Forecast
The negative news is just these, nothing high-level, one is that there are too many sellers, and the other is a dispute. News is often used to match the technical trend, a normal callback. From the support point of view, we mentioned three before, all of which are based on facts. 395 is the short-term bull-bear line, 385 is the pressure level of the previous wave and is also the second support level now. The third support level is near 368 on the weekly level, which is also the chip gathering zone of the previous consolidation period. Can 385 hold up, and how long will it hold up? This depends on the thickness of the continuous accumulation of negative sentiment. If there are more calm people, it will hold up for a wave. At the same time, it depends on whether the institutional level continues to release news to take the opportunity to continue to kill the bulls and create despair. Despair means that the market has fallen miserably, but no one mentions bottom-fishing anymore.
In general, the decline of copycat stocks is large, panic sentiment accounts for a large proportion, and most of them have broken through, but there is a great chance of falling in advance, and the downward momentum will be sharply reduced if it falls in one step.
3. How can the leeks save themselves?
1. I have repeatedly emphasized that spot is king and long-term is gold. I have rarely seen contracts that can make it to the end. This is a problem of human nature, unless you have no humanity. Even if you like short-term, 90% spot and 10% contracts, if you lose, you still have a trump card, and the big chips will not be lost.
2. Regarding the selection of sectors, we mentioned earlier that we should not buy a single bet in the basket, and proposed a 4321 position allocation plan (it can also be optimized according to own funds and risk preferences). You can look through my essays in the past few days. The first echelon is Bitcoin and Ethereum, the second echelon is mainstream public chains that have crossed bull and bear markets and have market value, the third echelon is high-narrative technology innovation track coins such as L2, and the fourth echelon is other popular concepts, scattered local dogs, and short-term and medium-term coins that can be rapidly pulled up. Today, we can see the advantages of this configuration.
3. Regarding how to build a position, we proposed a 235-step position building method, and for the pin market, we gave a "bottom-picking + pin-catching" plan. Buy more when the price drops sharply, buy less when the price drops slightly, and the pullback is an opportunity to build a position. However, in order to prevent buying halfway up the mountain and to prevent missing out, you must be prepared and control your position. In summary, follow the 235-step position (for each coin), buy the bottom-picking coins with support, and catch the big pins of high-quality coins.
Sell when the market is crazy, buy when the market is in a panic! Scientifically control the position and continuously increase the chips, clear the fog and find the truth that will win!
Pay attention to new strategies and don’t get lost in your investments!
