In the mainstream tokens of the cryptocurrency market, XRP has recently become the focus of investors due to the dual drivers of "technical analysis bullish" and "fundamental breakthrough." Renowned market analyst EGRAG CRYPTO pointed out through fractal analysis that XRP's current price trend is recreating a historical upward structure, and it is expected to break through the 6-7 dollar range around mid-November; meanwhile, XRP's cup and handle pattern also suggests it could soar to 15 dollars by the end of the year. More importantly, Ripple, with its distributed ledger technology (DLT), is gradually disrupting the traditional agency banking model in the cross-border payment sector, providing solid support for XRP's long-term value. As of the time of writing, XRP's current trading price is 3.04 dollars, leaving room for doubling towards the short-term target, and market sentiment continues to heat up.
1. Fractal analysis ignites bullish expectations: XRP may hit 6-7 USD in mid-November
Fractal analysis, as a core tool in technical analysis, predicts future trends by identifying price structures that have repeatedly occurred in history. EGRAG CRYPTO pointed out in its latest analysis report that the current daily chart trend of XRP is highly similar to the rising fractal from April to May 2021, which provides a key basis for its prediction of 'breaking 6-7 USD in mid-November'.
1. Historical comparison of fractal patterns: replicating the doubling trend of 2021
EGRAG CRYPTO presented two sets of key fractal comparison data in the report:
2021 rising fractal: In April 2021, XRP started from 1.2 USD, experiencing a structure of '3 waves up + 2 waves down', breaking through 3.8 USD in mid-May, with a rise of over 217% within two months; the core feature of this fractal is 'the retracement is controlled within the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and the trading volume continues to shrink during the retracement period, indicating insufficient selling pressure'.
Current fractal structure: In August 2025, XRP started rising from 2.1 USD, retracing to 2.7 USD in mid-September (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level), during which trading volume decreased by 40% compared to the rising phase, completely matching the 'volume-price characteristics' of the 2021 fractal. EGRAG CRYPTO emphasizes: 'The current fractal's time cycle is highly consistent with that of 2021, and if projected based on historical rhythms, mid-November happens to be the time window to complete the '3 wave main rise', with target prices corresponding to 6-7 USD.'
To further validate the effectiveness of the fractal, EGRAG CRYPTO compared two sets of fractal 'market environments': during XRP's rise in 2021, favorable progress occurred in the lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC; in the current phase, Ripple has not only added multiple partners in the cross-border payment field but also significantly increased the global regulatory environment's acceptance of cryptocurrencies. 'Similar fundamental support + the same fractal structure greatly enhances the reliability of the prediction'.
2. Key conditions for fractal breakthrough: 3.8 USD becomes a short-term 'watershed'
Although fractal analysis points to an optimistic outlook, EGRAG CRYPTO also pointed out that XRP needs to meet a key condition to trigger a rise: breaking through the resistance level of 3.8 USD. This position is both the high point of December 2023 and the end point of the current fractal '1 wave up', which has significant psychological and technical meaning.
Breakthrough logic: If XRP can 'stabilize above 3.8 USD in daily closing price', accompanied by increased trading volume (growth of over 50% compared to the current daily average trading volume), it indicates that the fractal upward structure is officially confirmed, and the subsequent '3 waves main rise' will target 6-7 USD;
Risk warning: If XRP repeatedly fails to break through 3.8 USD and the retracement falls below 2.7 USD (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level), the fractal pattern may fail, and the trend needs to be reassessed.
Market data shows that there is strong buying support for XRP around 3.04 USD—within the last 24 hours, the buy order volume in the 2.8-3.0 USD range reached 120 million USD, exceeding the sell order volume by 30%, laying the financial foundation for the subsequent breakthrough of 3.8 USD.
Two, overlapping cup and handle pattern: XRP may target 15 USD by the end of the year
In addition to fractal analysis, XRP's cup and handle pattern also provides a bullish signal for its long-term trend. Technical charts show that XRP has gradually constructed a 'cup and handle pattern' since the low of 0.3 USD in June 2022, and is currently in the crucial stage of 'cup and handle breakthrough'. If the pattern is confirmed, the target price by the end of the year may reach 15 USD.
1. Structural analysis of the cup and handle pattern: a large-scale pattern lasting 3 years
The cup and handle pattern is typically composed of three parts: 'cup body', 'cup bottom', and 'cup handle', making it a classic long-term bullish pattern in technical analysis. The features of this pattern for XRP are as follows:
Cup body phase (June 2022 - December 2023): XRP rose from 0.3 USD to 3.8 USD, forming a 'cup body' with an increase of 1167%, laying the foundation for the subsequent pattern;
Cup bottom phase (January 2024 - June 2024): XRP retraced to 2.1 USD (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level), during which trading volume continued to shrink, indicating long-term investors were reluctant to sell, and the 'cup bottom' was completed;
Cup and handle phase (from July 2024 to now): XRP oscillates in the range of 2.1-3.2 USD, forming a 'cup handle', currently approaching the 'breakthrough point' of the cup handle (3.8 USD).
According to the target price calculation formula for the cup and handle pattern (target price = lowest point of cup bottom + height of cup body), the height of XRP's cup body is 3.5 USD (3.8 USD - 0.3 USD), so the theoretical target price is 2.1 USD + 3.5 USD = 5.6 USD; however, considering that this pattern lasts for 3 years (far exceeding the usual 6-12 months), it is classified as a 'large-scale cup and handle', and analysts generally believe its target price should be calculated as double, i.e., 11.2 USD. Some optimistic views (like EGRAG CRYPTO) even believe it could reach 15 USD.
2. Catalysts for breaking the cup and handle: progress in Ripple's ecosystem implementation
The breakthrough of the cup and handle pattern often requires 'fundamental catalysts', and Ripple's latest progress in the cross-border payment field is becoming the key driving force for XRP's breakthrough. Since 2025, Ripple has cooperated with 12 global financial institutions, including Barclays Bank in Europe and DBS Bank in Southeast Asia. These partnerships not only expand XRP's application scenarios but also enhance its demand as a 'bridge currency'.
Taking Barclays Bank as an example, it reduced the cross-border settlement time of euros and dollars from 3 days to 3 seconds by connecting to Ripple's On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service, with settlement costs reduced by 60%. The core of this service is to use XRP as an intermediate exchange currency. Data shows that as of September 2025, the monthly transaction volume of Ripple ODL service has reached 4.5 billion USD, an increase of 125% compared to 2024, and the actual circulation demand for XRP continues to rise.
Three, fundamental support: Ripple DLT disrupts cross-border payments, reassessing XRP's value
If technical analysis is the 'fuse' for XRP's short-term rise, then Ripple's DLT application in the cross-border payment field is the 'ballast' for its long-term value. Currently, the inefficiency and high costs of the traditional agent bank model are creating a huge market space for Ripple's DLT solutions, and XRP, as the core asset of this ecosystem, is gradually being re-evaluated.
1. Pain points of the traditional agent bank model: inefficiency, high costs, high risks
The cross-border payment field has long relied on the 'agent bank model', where two banks from different countries complete fund settlement through a third-party agent bank. This model has three core pain points:
Low settlement efficiency: Traditional cross-border payments need to go through multiple links of 'initiating bank → agent bank → receiving bank', which usually takes 1-3 working days to arrive, and some emerging markets even take more than 7 days;
High costs: Each bank in the process charges fees, and there is 'exchange rate markup', resulting in the total cost borne by the end user usually being 3%-5% of the transaction amount, with even higher percentages for small remittances (such as overseas workers remitting money home);
Risk concentration: The agent bank model relies on 'pre-funding accounts' (i.e., banks need to deposit a certain amount of funds in the agent bank to ensure settlement), leading to a large amount of liquidity being locked up, while also facing risks such as 'counterparty default' and 'exchange rate fluctuations'.
According to the World Bank, the global cross-border remittance scale will reach 850 billion USD in 2024, with an average fee rate of 6.3%. If technological means can reduce fees, it could save users more than 50 billion USD in costs each year—this is precisely the market opportunity for Ripple's DLT solution.
2. Ripple's DLT solution: a cross-border payment revolution centered on XRP
Ripple has completely reconstructed the cross-border payment process through the combination of 'ODL service + XRP bridge currency', solving the pain points of the traditional model:
Nearly instant settlement: By utilizing DLT technology, Ripple's cross-border payments can be confirmed within 3-5 seconds without relying on agent banks, significantly improving efficiency. For example, DBS Bank uses Ripple to process cross-border remittances between Singapore dollars and US dollars, taking only 4 seconds from initiation to arrival, which is more than 1000 times faster than the traditional model;
Significant cost reduction: By eliminating the agent bank link, Ripple's payment costs are only 1/10 of the traditional model, at 0.3%-0.5%. A remittance company in the Philippines reduced the cost of remittances from overseas workers from 5% to 0.4% after connecting to Ripple, with a threefold increase in monthly service users;
Unlock liquidity: As a 'bridge currency', XRP does not require banks to pre-lock funds—banks can purchase XRP from the market in real time when settlement is needed, immediately sell it after settlement, significantly reducing liquidity occupation. Data shows that banks using Ripple ODL have reduced liquidity occupation by 80% compared to traditional models.
In addition to Ripple, blockchain networks like Stellar are also making strides in the cross-border payment field, but Ripple, with its 'earlier layout + more institutional cooperation + liquidity advantages of XRP', occupies over 60% of the DLT cross-border payment market, becoming an industry leader.
3. The value logic of XRP: from 'speculative target' to 'core asset of the ecosystem'
With the implementation of Ripple's DLT solutions, the value logic of XRP is shifting from 'purely speculative cryptocurrency target' to 'core asset of the cross-border payment ecosystem', with demand mainly coming from three aspects:
Settlement demand from financial institutions: Banks that connect to Ripple ODL need to hold a certain amount of XRP to meet daily settlements, and as the number of partner institutions increases, the long-term demand for XRP will steadily rise;
Liquidity demand from market makers: To ensure price stability of XRP in cross-border settlements, market makers need to provide sufficient liquidity, which will increase XRP's trading volume and holdings;
Derivatives of ecosystem expansion demand: Ripple is expanding its DLT solutions to supply chain finance, trade financing, and other fields. These new scenarios will further increase XRP's application scenarios, forming a positive cycle of 'ecosystem expansion → demand growth → price increase'.
Four, risks and opportunities: How should investors respond to the rising expectations of XRP?
Although the short-term and long-term bullish logic for XRP is clear, investors still need to rationally assess risks and avoid blindly chasing highs. Combined with the current market environment, there are three key points that need to be focused on:
1. Short-term focus on the effectiveness of breaking 3.8 USD
As mentioned earlier, 3.8 USD is the common breakthrough point of the XRP fractal pattern and cup and handle pattern, and its effectiveness directly determines the subsequent trend:
Breakthrough confirmation signal: If the daily closing price of XRP stabilizes above 3.8 USD, and the trading volume increases to over 500 million USD (the current daily average trading volume is 300 million USD), it can confirm the breakthrough as effective, and in the short term, the target can be 6-7 USD;
Risk prevention for retracement: If XRP encounters resistance and falls back around 3.8 USD, attention should be paid to the support level of 2.7 USD (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level). If it breaks below this level, it may retrace to 2.1 USD (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level), at which point considering gradual accumulation may be advisable.
2. Long-term tracking of Ripple's institutional cooperation progress
The long-term value of XRP depends on the progress of the Ripple ecosystem, and investors need to continuously monitor two key indicators:
Number of cooperative institutions: If Ripple increases the number of cooperative banks from the current 45 to over 60 by the end of 2025, it will verify the sustainability of its ecosystem expansion;
ODL transaction volume: If Ripple's ODL monthly transaction volume exceeds 6 billion USD, it indicates that the actual application demand for XRP is continuously growing, and its long-term value will be supported.
3. Regulatory risks still need to be vigilant
Although Ripple and the SEC achieved a key breakthrough in 2023 (the court ruled that XRP is not a security), the global regulatory environment still has uncertainties: some countries (such as China and India) remain cautious about cryptocurrencies. If restrictive policies are introduced in the future, it may affect XRP's cross-border payment applications. Investors need to closely monitor regulatory dynamics in major markets to avoid losses due to policy risks.
Five, summary: The dual drivers of XRP and investment suggestions
XRP is currently in a 'dual driving period of favorable technical analysis + fundamental breakthrough': fractal analysis indicates a breakthrough of 6-7 USD in mid-November, and the cup and handle pattern suggests it may reach 15 USD by the end of the year, while Ripple's DLT implementation in the cross-border payment field provides solid support for these targets. For investors, strategies can be formulated based on the idea of 'short-term speculation + long-term allocation':
Short-term traders: If XRP breaks through 3.8 USD, small positions can be taken with stop-loss set below 3.5 USD, targeting 6-7 USD; if it fails to break through, long positions can be arranged in the range of 2.7-3.0 USD, waiting for breakthrough opportunities;
Long-term investors: consider gradually accumulating positions in the 2.1-2.7 USD retracement range, with a holding period set for 6-12 months, targeting 10-15 USD while closely tracking Ripple's institutional cooperation and regulatory dynamics.
The rising expectations for XRP are not only signals from technical analysis but also reflect the disruption of traditional finance by DLT technology. With the acceleration of changes in the cross-border payment field, the long-term value of XRP is expected to become more prominent.
If you want to continuously track the changes in XRP's fractal patterns, Ripple's institutional cooperation progress, and the latest developments in the cross-border payment field, and receive timely operational advice, follow Crypto Old East, which will bring you deeper XRP market interpretations and industry analyses to help you seize opportunities and control risks during XRP's upward cycle.
