In the Solana ecosystem meme coin track, SPX6900 (abbreviated as SPX) has attracted market attention since its launch due to the "endorsement by investor Murad." However, after entering September, this meme coin, once highly anticipated, experienced a significant pullback, with its price dropping 35% from a high of $2.15 in August to $1.36, directly causing Murad's heavily concentrated portfolio (97% position in SPX) to shrink from $67 million to $42.8 million, a decrease of over 36%. Despite the short-term performance pressure, Murad not only did not reduce his holdings of any tokens but also publicly predicted that SPX would rise to $1,000 in the future. Coupled with on-chain data showing a "strong accumulation trend," SPX has once again become a hot topic in the crypto community.
1. Price Pullback and Holding Shrinkage: The Background of SPX's Short-term Pressure
SPX's price fluctuations are closely tied to Murad's holding dynamics, becoming the core logic that the market focuses on. Looking back at its price trajectory: in August, after Murad publicly endorsed SPX and emphasized its 'potential as a Solana ecosystem meme coin', SPX's price quickly surged from below $1 to $2.15, a more than 115% increase in a short period, and Murad's holding market value also soared to $67 million, attracting a large number of follow-on investors.
However, after entering September, market sentiment changed. On one hand, the entire cryptocurrency market, especially the meme coin sector, experienced a broad decline, and investor risk appetite decreased, with previously high-performing assets becoming the main force for pullbacks; on the other hand, SPX itself lacks 'substantial ecological support', relying solely on 'celebrity endorsements' for upward logic, making it difficult to sustain. Some short-term speculative funds began to take profits, further exacerbating the price decline. By mid to late September, SPX's price fell to $1.36, down 35% from the August peak, and Murad's holding market value also shrank to $42.8 million, equivalent to a $24.2 million evaporation over two months.
It is worth noting that Murad's 'zero reduction' operations during the price pullback have sparked controversy. Some investors believe that as a 'core holder' with a 97% holding ratio, Murad's steadfast position conveys a 'long-term optimistic' signal, avoiding 'panic selling triggered by large sell-offs'; however, there are also voices of doubt pointing out that excessively concentrated holdings are a risk in themselves - if market sentiment deteriorates further in the future, or if Murad shows any signs of reduction, it could lead to more severe fluctuations in SPX's price, and ordinary investors should be wary of 'concentration risk'.
2. Murad's $1000 Prediction: Sources of Confidence and Market Divergence
In the face of price pullbacks and holding shrinkage, Murad not only remained unshaken but also publicly stated on social media: 'The long-term value of SPX is far from being tapped. I firmly believe it can reach $1000 in the future.' This aggressive prediction forms a stark contrast with the current price of $1.36, sparking widespread discussion in the market about the 'source of his confidence.'
From Murad's public statements, his optimism about SPX is mainly focused on two points: First, the 'traffic dividend of the Solana ecosystem'. He believes that Solana, as a high-performance public chain, has seen a continuous increase in ecological activity recently, and user growth in fields such as DeFi and NFTs will drive attention to meme coins within the ecosystem. SPX, as a 'backed and community-based' asset, is expected to capture this traffic; Second, the 'narrative value of meme coins'. Murad emphasizes that SPX's community atmosphere has initially formed, with the number of holders exceeding 2 million. This 'community consensus' is the core driving force for the long-term rise of meme coins, similar to the early rise of DOGE and SHIB. If it can continue to expand its community influence in the future, the price is expected to achieve 'non-linear growth'.
However, the market shows a clear divergence in attitude towards this prediction:
Optimists: Mainly long-term holders of SPX, they agree with the logic that 'community consensus drives the value of meme coins', believing that Murad's zero reduction and aggressive predictions can enhance market confidence, and that the current price of $1.36 is already at a 'relatively low level', suitable for long-term positioning.
Cautious faction: primarily short-term traders and institutional investors, they point out that meme coins generally lack fundamental support, and price fluctuations are highly dependent on market sentiment. The $1000 prediction 'lacks actual data support', and the current liquidity and ecological implementation progress of SPX cannot match this target price, making it more likely to maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term.
3. On-chain Data Insights: Strong Accumulation Momentum, Exchange Supply Hits One-Year Low
In contrast to the short-term price pullback, SPX's on-chain data presents a 'long-term positive' signal, becoming the key evidence supporting its 'accumulation momentum'.
First, exchange supply has dropped to a one-year low. On-chain data shows that as of late September, the number of SPX tokens held on major exchanges has fallen to its lowest level since issuance, decreasing by over 40% from the August peak. This data indicates that more and more holders are choosing to move SPX from exchanges to personal wallets for long-term holding, rather than for short-term trading or selling, reflecting an increase in market 'hold sentiment', and short-term selling pressure continues to weaken - generally speaking, a decline in exchange supply is one of the potential signals of the 'bottom area', indicating that most investors are no longer bearish on the short-term trend.
Secondly, the number of holders has surpassed 2 million, and the degree of dispersion is gradually increasing. Although Murad still holds 97% of the circulating supply, the number of ordinary holders has grown from 500,000 in August to 2 million, a 300% increase in three months. This change indicates that SPX's community foundation is expanding, no longer relying on 'single holder endorsement', but gradually forming a 'retail consensus' - for meme coins, an increase in the number of holders often signifies an improvement in community activity, accumulating potential momentum for subsequent price rebounds.
Moreover, the proportion of on-chain accumulation transactions has increased. Data shows that since September, the proportion of SPX's on-chain 'single transactions over 100 SPX' has risen from 20% to 45%, and these accumulation addresses are mostly from 'new long-term wallets' (not short-term arbitrage addresses), further validating market rumors that 'institutions or large holders are beginning to layout'.
4. Future Risks and Opportunities for SPX: How Should Investors Respond?
For ordinary investors, the current 'high controversy' of SPX means that 'high risk and high opportunity coexist', requiring rational evaluation from two aspects.
1. Core Risk Points
Concentration Risk: Murad holds 97% of the circulating supply. Although he has not reduced his holdings currently, any future 'unlocking or reduction plans' could deal a fatal blow to the price, making this the core risk of SPX.
Lack of Fundamental Support: As a meme coin, SPX currently has no 'practical application scenarios', 'technological innovations', or 'ecological collaborations'. Its price completely relies on market sentiment and community consensus. Once the consensus breaks, the price may return to the issuance price or even go to zero.
Market Sentiment Volatility Risk: Meme coins are highly sensitive to market sentiment. If the broader cryptocurrency market turns bearish in the future, or if negative news emerges from the Solana ecosystem, SPX may face more significant pullbacks.
3. Potential Opportunity Points
On-chain data improvement: the decline in exchange supply and the growth in the number of holders provide support for short-term price stabilization. If market sentiment warms up subsequently, SPX may see a rebound.
Solana Ecological Dividend: If the Solana ecosystem continues to develop and attracts more users and funds, SPX, as a 'well-known meme coin within the ecosystem', may benefit indirectly from 'traffic-driven' growth.
The Long-term Impact of Celebrity Endorsement: Murad's steadfast holdings and aggressive predictions will still attract some 'long-term betting' investors, maintaining a certain level of market attention for SPX.
Overall, SPX is more suitable for investors with 'extremely high risk tolerance who can accept the risk of going to zero'. Ordinary investors should control their positions (suggested not exceeding 1% of total funds) to avoid blindly following the '1000 dollar prediction'.
SPX's short-term pullback and long-term controversy reflect the typical characteristics of the meme coin sector - high volatility, high consensus, and high risk. If you want to continuously track SPX's price dynamics, Murad's holding changes, and on-chain data updates, follow Crypto Old Dong, who will provide timely market interpretations and risk alerts to help you make rational decisions and avoid traps in meme coin investments.
