Based on the current market situation, the buying points for Bitcoin's long and short positions and the matters to pay attention to have been sorted. Please note that the cryptocurrency market is **highly volatile**, all analyses are based on current information, **and do not constitute any investment advice**.

First, quickly understand the key points:

Long Strategy | 116,500 - 116,000 | Below 115,500 | 117,000 - 117,500 | Price pulls back to stabilize in the support area, with the moving average system in a bullish arrangement |

| Short Strategy | 118,500 - 119,000 | Above 119,500 | 117,000 - 116,500 | Price rebounds to the resistance area and stagnates, RSI may be overbought or show divergence, trading volume has not effectively increased |

📊 Current market status and key levels (as of September 19, 2025)

*Current price reference**: Bitcoin is currently quoted at around $117,600 (Note: there may be slight differences across different platforms).

*Technical pattern**: From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently in a **range-bound** pattern. Although the moving average system shows a **bullish arrangement**, the short-term bullish momentum has increased somewhat, but the **extreme shrinkage of trading volume** has formed a divergence between volume and price, which may limit the sustainability of the rise.

*Important resistance level**: Pay attention to $118,700 (upper band of the daily Bollinger band) and the $119,000 - $120,000 range.

*Important support level**: Focus on the $116,500 - $116,000 area, followed by $115,000.

📈 Bullish strategy (going long)

*Ideal entry point**: Consider near the support area of $116,500 - $116,000, and when signs of stabilization appear (e.g., a bullish pin bar pattern or morning star pattern on small cycle candlesticks), gradually build positions.

*Stop-loss setting**: It is recommended to set below $115,500 to prevent the failure of support leading to a trend reversal.

*Target level**: The initial target can be seen at the $117,000 - $117,500 area. If a strong breakout occurs above resistance, it can be looked at further.

📉 Bearish strategy (short selling)

*Ideal entry point**: Consider trying to short lightly when the price rebounds to the resistance area of $118,500 - $119,000, and there are signs of stagnation (such as overbought RSI on the hourly chart, bearish engulfing pattern, dark cloud cover, etc., while the trading volume fails to effectively increase).

*Stop-loss setting**: It is recommended to set above $119,500 to cope with the risk of false breakouts.

*Target level**: The initial target can be seen at the $117,000 - $116,500 area.

🎯 Factors affecting win rate and risk reminders

Any estimates of win rates are based on probabilities, and the market is ever-changing; be cautious of the following risks:

1. Trading volume confirmation: Whether breaking through resistance or breaking below support, **significant increase in trading volume** is needed to confirm the validity of signals. The current divergence between volume and price is a signal that requires caution.

2. Macroeconomic and policy events:

*Federal Reserve monetary policy**: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions (such as expectations of rate cuts or hikes) will have a significant impact on global liquidity, thereby affecting risk assets such as Bitcoin. For example, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve may increase market liquidity and boost risk assets, including Bitcoin.

*Regulatory dynamics**: Sudden regulatory news or geopolitical events may instantly change market sentiment.

3. Market sentiment and on-chain data:

*Institutional fund movements**: The inflow/outflow of funds for Bitcoin spot ETFs can reflect the sentiment of institutional investors.

*On-chain indicators**: The weakness in on-chain data such as active addresses and transaction numbers may indicate a decrease in market activity.

*'Whale' movements**: Large transfers and trading behaviors of big holders may impact short-term prices.

4. Technical indicator divergence: Pay close attention to whether technical indicators such as **RSI and MACD fail to synchronize new highs (top divergence)** when prices reach new highs; this is usually a warning signal of weakening momentum.

5. Leverage risk: High leverage trading in the volatile cryptocurrency market is prone to liquidation. Even if the directional judgment is correct, it may be forcibly liquidated due to short-term violent fluctuations.

6. Alternative views: Some analyses also suggest that Bitcoin's growth cycle is shortening, and its explosive exponential growth may be weakening. At the same time, data shows that the Bitcoin risk index is currently at a relatively low level (23%), indicating that the market environment is relatively stable, and the probability of a sharp drop is low.

💡 Suggestions for investors

1. Light position operation, strict stop-loss: This is the top priority of all strategies. **Do not take heavy positions** and **be sure to set a stop-loss**; it is the lifeline of your capital.

2. Gradual position building, gradual profit-taking: Do not attempt to buy at the lowest point or sell at the highest point all at once. Using a gradual strategy can average the entry price and lock in some profits.

3. Focus on larger cycle trends: Avoid getting caught up in short-term chaotic fluctuations and pay more attention to daily and weekly trends to better grasp the overall direction.

4. Continuous learning, remain calm: The market is always changing; constantly learning technical aspects and understanding the fundamentals are key to long-term survival. Maintain a calm mindset and avoid being dominated by FOMO (fear of missing out) and FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) emotions.

⚠️ Important reminder

Once again, it is emphasized that all the above analyses are based solely on the current public market information and technical indicators, **absolutely not constituting any investment advice**. Cryptocurrency investment is extremely risky, and price fluctuations are enormous; you may lose all of your principal. Please make investment decisions cautiously after fully understanding the risks and combining your own independent thinking and judgment.