Currently, Ethereum is around $4,160, and the overall market sentiment is relatively cautious.

| Current Situation | The price is close to the short-term support area of $4,100 - $4,160, and there may be a technical rebound opportunity. | Technical indicators (such as daily KDJ, MACD) show a bearish resonance decline, and the market sentiment is quite pessimistic. |

| Core Logic | 1. Key Support Defense: $4,000 is an **important psychological and moving average support** combined with the 50-day moving average, and it is also the "watershed" for medium to long-term trends. It is not advisable to be overly pessimistic before losing this level.<br>2. Institutional Accumulation: A large amount of ETH (approximately 1.7 million) has been accumulated in the $4,300-$4,400 range, which may form strong support. | 1. Technical Pattern is Bearish: The price has broken below the key support area of $4,200-$4,250, and the short-term trend has weakened.<br>2. Insufficient Momentum: Trading volume has shrunk, and the market lacks clear directional drive, exhibiting low volatility fluctuations. |

| Key resistance levels | $4,230 - $4,280 → $4,300 - $4,400 (strong accumulation area, has turned into resistance) | $4,180 - $4,230 is the recent preliminary resistance |

| Key support levels | $4,100 - $4,160 (current platform) → $4,000 (lifeline) | $4,000 → $3,800 (near the 100-day moving average) |

### 💡 Long and short operation strategy reference

Considering the current market situation, you can contemplate the following two strategic ideas.

- 👑 Long strategy: Betting on rebounds at key support levels

- Ideal buy point: Consider lightly testing long positions when signs of stabilization appear near the $4,100 - $4,160 support range (such as lower shadows, small real body candlesticks).

- Confirmation signal: A price breakout with volume above the $4,230 - $4,280 range can be viewed as a short-term strengthening signal.

- Stop-loss setup: To control risk, long position stop-loss is usually considered to be set below key support, such as effectively breaking below the $4,000 level.

- Target levels: Initially look towards $4,230 - $4,280, if a strong breakout occurs, the next target can be seen at the $4,300 - $4,400 area.

- 🧨 Short strategy: Follow up when rebounds are blocked or break down

- Ideal short entry point: When rebounding to the $4,180 - $4,230 range is blocked, or after price effectively breaks down below the $4,100 - $4,160 support.

- Confirmation signal: Daily level confirmation below the $4,000 key support may open up further downside potential.

- Stop-loss setup: Short position stop-loss can be considered set above $4,300 - $4,350.

- Target levels: First target $4,000, second target around $3,800.

### 💎 How to assess win rate and decision-making

In the market, absolute win rates cannot be predicted, but you can enhance the 'probability advantage' of your decisions through the following points:

1. Focus on key price level performance: **$4,000** is currently the most important 'lifeline'. Stability above it or effective breakdown below will greatly influence the balance of short-term long and short positions.

2. Go with the trend: Current short-term technical indicators are bearish, and the win rate for shorting near resistance levels may be relatively high; while betting on rebounds at key support levels is a contrarian operation that requires stricter stop-loss discipline.

3. Observe market momentum: Pay attention to whether rebounds or declines are **accompanied by increased trading volume**. Volume-less rebounds are often unsustainable, while volume increases in declines may indicate a continuation of the trend.

4. Strict risk management: This is the key to determining long-term success or failure. **Always set stop-losses**, and control the position size of each trade, for example, keeping the stop-loss amount within 1%-2% of total capital.

### ⚠️ Other factors to pay attention to

- Institutional and large holder movements: Pay attention to data showing Ethereum flowing out of exchanges, which may indicate that large holders are accumulating, reducing market selling pressure.

- Macroeconomic market environment: The performance of US stocks, the US dollar index (DXY), and other macro factors will affect the risk appetite of the entire cryptocurrency market.

- Ethereum fundamentals: Network upgrades (such as Pectra upgrade), on-chain activities (DeFi, NFT) activity levels, and regulatory dynamics will support its long-term value.