The Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut of the year has just been implemented, reducing rates by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25%. This outcome was actually anticipated by everyone, as the market had largely digested it beforehand.

The key point is to see what Powell has said. He clearly stated that inflation is nearly under control now, and the Fed is more focused on employment. Therefore, there won't be a rush to make consecutive, large cuts, but rather a gradual approach, taking one step at a time while remaining cautious.

Interestingly, there is no consensus within the Federal Reserve. Among the 19 participants in the forecast, a few believe that no further cuts are needed this year, while some think there might be one more cut at most. Additionally, 9 individuals support a total of three cuts this year. One person even directly called for a significant cut of 150 basis points—indicating a wide disparity in their judgments about the economic outlook.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve has raised its economic growth expectations for the coming years, suggesting they are more confident about achieving a "soft landing" than before.

So what is the practical impact on the cryptocurrency circle?

Firstly, this 25 basis points cut was already anticipated by the market, so it won't suddenly lead to a surge.

Secondly, Powell also mentioned that this is not the beginning of a new round of large-scale monetary easing. The rate cut is based on risk control and won't be a sudden series of cuts. Therefore, expecting an immediate super-loose market is unrealistic.

However, in the long term, a shift towards easing is certainly good for risk assets. Once employment begins to weaken and policies truly shift, the funding environment will gradually loosen, which could be a medium to long-term positive for the cryptocurrency market.

My view is: don't assume that just because of a rate cut, a bull market is about to arrive. The short-term market may still be quite volatile, and what truly drives prices may depend more on funding expectations and market sentiment.

In summary: don’t get too excited in the short term, but it's worth holding on for the long term; those who can hold may be the ones to smile in the end.

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