Recently, after communicating with many friends in the crypto community, I found that everyone is generally troubled by the same question - the current bull market of 2025 has already entered its later stage, yet the prices of the altcoins in hand remain at bear market levels. Watching Bitcoin (BTC) continue to rise for more than two years, many people have begun to feel anxious: are they going to miss the entire market cycle? Thus, they are all asking: 'When will altcoins start? How much room for growth is left?'
In the latter stage of the 2025 bull market in the crypto space, the launch window for altcoins may concentrate around September to October, but one must be cautious of market volatility risks following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, and the real structural opportunities may need to wait until after October when market sentiment stabilizes. The following is a specific analysis:
Launch window period: Technical and capital resonance from September to October
Historical cycle pattern: After Bitcoin bottoms out, it enters the 'altcoin season' about 320 days later. If July 2024 is considered the bottoming point, May 2025 should be the launch window, but market sentiment has delayed this to June-July. Currently (September), we are still at the tail end of this cycle, and if Bitcoin maintains a sideways trend in September, the probability of capital rotating to altcoins will significantly increase.
Market indicators verification:
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D): Decreased from 64% to 57%, indicating that capital is flowing from Bitcoin to altcoins.
Altseason Index: Approaching the key threshold of 75, indicating that the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin is improving.
Total market cap change: The total cryptocurrency market cap increased from 2.5 trillion to 4 trillion USD, with the total market cap of altcoins (excluding BTC) exceeding 1.88 trillion, close to an all-time high, and showing 'step-like' growth, consistent with the characteristics of institutional capital entering in batches.
Capital flow: Institutional funds are accelerating their inflow into the altcoin market through compliant channels such as ETFs and Digital Asset Trusts (DAT), especially with increased allocation needs for mainstream assets (such as ETH, XRP, SOL, etc.) that have clear compliance and strong liquidity.
Impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September: short-term volatility and long-term benefits coexist
Short-term volatility:
Market sentiment: The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market's expectation probability for a rate cut in September has soared to over 90%, gradually pricing in the possibility of three rate cuts this year (in September, October, and December). However, the rate cut expectations have been partially digested by the market; if the magnitude or frequency of the rate cuts falls short of expectations, it may lead to a reverse correction in asset prices.
Capital flow: In the early stages of a rate cut, funds may preferentially flow into safe-haven assets like Bitcoin, putting short-term pressure on altcoins. However, if Bitcoin's price remains stable and BTC.D continues to decline, funds will gradually rotate into the altcoin market.
Long-term benefits:
Liquidity release: Rate cuts will lower the risk-free interest rate, boost bond prices, and lower yields, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of risk assets (such as cryptocurrencies).
Institutional allocation: As the capital environment returns to being accommodative, institutional investors will increase their allocation to altcoins, especially those with fundamental support and clear compliance.
Risk warning: Structural differentiation and regulatory pressure
Structural differentiation: The altcoin season of 2025 will no longer be a speculative feast of 'blindly rising,' but rather a structural bull market characterized by compliance, institutionalization, and fundamentals. Capital will flow rapidly between different sectors, and investors need to shift their thinking from 'broad rise' to 'structured selection.'
Regulatory pressure: Although US policies are becoming friendlier, regulatory pressures in other parts of the world may affect the market. For instance, if a certain country implements strict cryptocurrency regulations, it may lead to a deterioration in market sentiment and trigger a short-term correction.
Market sentiment: Retail sentiment is relatively subdued, mainly due to a decrease in risk appetite after experiencing a bear market and increased regulatory compliance requirements. This may lead to greater market volatility, and investors should remain cautious.
Combining the current capital entry rhythm, around early October, it is likely to be the time window for the concentrated launch of Ethereum-based altcoins. According to my inference, about 60% of Ethereum-based altcoins will experience a decent bull market during this phase.
Finally, it must be emphasized that the above content is purely an inference made by A Xin based on past market patterns, current capital flows, and relevant data, and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and factors such as policy changes and capital flows may change market trends at any time. Please consider this as a reference; if you are to make investment decisions, be sure to consider your own risk tolerance and avoid blindly following the trend.
