Interest rate cuts are coming soon. Can we enter the spot market now? ??
In the spot market, the RSI has surged into the overbought zone, while the CVD is weakening and trading volume remains flat, reflecting strong momentum, but confidence is limited due to strong selling pressure.
Participation in the futures market has increased, with open interest rising. The perpetual contract CVD price has soared due to strong inflows from buyers. However, the weak funding environment highlights a decrease in bullish demand, indicating that leverage remains active, but market sentiment is turning cautious.
The options market has seen an increase in open interest, but the volatility spread has fallen below the range, and skew has significantly decreased, suggesting a reduction in hedging activities, leading to a more complacent market sentiment. Traders' defensiveness seems to have weakened, but this increases the risk of unexpected movements when volatility re-emerges.
In the U.S. spot ETF market, inflows have significantly strengthened, with net inflows far exceeding the range, and trading volume remains stable, indicating strong institutional demand. The ETF MVRV has risen, with holders remaining profitable, reinforcing the cautiously optimistic sentiment among traditional finance (TradFi) investors.
On-chain fundamentals are mixed, with the number of addresses dropping to a cyclical low, but transfer volume has increased, indicating that despite a slowdown in user activity, capital flow is recovering. The decline in transaction fees highlights weak demand for block space and reduced speculative pressure.
Capital flow is showing a balanced trend, with realized capital changes remaining stable, and the STH/LTH ratio has slightly increased, indicating a modest presence of speculation, while the underlying structure remains stable.
Profitability indicators have improved, with profit supply, net losses, and realized profit/loss ratios all rising. This highlights the general profitability of investors and stronger market sentiment, although the increase in profit realization rates raises the risk of demand exhaustion.
Overall, the market benefits from macro-driven momentum, with ETF inflows and increased futures positions supporting recovery. However, weakening spot capital flows, a soft funding environment, and intensified profit-taking indicate that selling pressure is emerging. Market sentiment is improving, but vulnerabilities remain, and if demand cannot be sustained, Bitcoin will face risks.
So cannot
