Bull run ends in 40 days.
We're 1,029 days into this bull cycle, 514 days post-halving. Cycle is 97% complete.
This is your last-call playbook.
CURRENT STATUS: BTC at $114,900.
We're deeper into the cycle than ever before.
1,029 days since the Nov 21, 2022 low puts us near 97% completion of a typical 1,065-day bull market.
Shit just got serious...
HALVING ā PEAK TIMING IS LASER-PRECISE:
2012 halving ā”ļø 2013 peak: 366 days
2016 halving ā”ļø 2017 peak: 526 days
2020 halving ā”ļø 2021 peak: 548 days
2024 halving ā”ļø We're now at 514 days.
Falls right in the historical 518-580 day peak zone.
What's the sweet spot?
COUNTDOWN TO PEAK WINDOW:
Peak window opens: Oct 19 (34 days from now)
Peak window closes: Nov 20 (66 days from now)
Statistical sweet spot: Oct 20-Nov 5 cluster
For exact dates, read on.
HIGH-PROBABILITY PEAK DATES:
Oct 20 (Mon): 35 days
Oct 27 (Mon): 42 days
Oct 29 (Wed): 44 days
The late-October cluster is where math meets history.
Let's talk confirmed data now:
ON-CHAIN SIGNALS CONFIRM:
NUPL: 0.539 (Belief/Optimism phase; not euphoric yet)
MVRV: 2.29 (room to run higher)
Mining cost ratio: 0.88 (sustainable level)
We're positioned for the final push.
Are you?
INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATION:
BTC ETF AUM: $165.83B (IBIT: $87.36B leading)
24h ETF volume: $4.14B
Net flows: +$552.7M
The infrastructure is stronger than any prior cycle.
Note BlackRock BTC AUM is near ATH.
SUPPORT STRUCTURE INTACT:
200-week SMA: $52,830 (massive floor)
50-week SMA: $97,972 (key bull support)
7-week SPX correlation: -0.06 (decoupled vs equities)
Bitcoin shows resilience and lag behind stocks.
SEPTEMBER ANOMALY:
Historically Bitcoin's worst month (-55.17% annualized), yet we're +5.87% MTD.
The September 12th day shows +2.4% average returns ā exactly where we've been grinding higher against seasonal headwinds.
Bad time to take it for granted though.
MULTI-TIMEFRAME TECHNICAL SETUP:
1D RSI: 55 (healthy, not overbought)
200D BPRO trend: $111,500 (strong daily support)
12H/4H structure: CTF Trailer bull mode, stop $111,096
ATR: 2,470 | 50D volatility: 2,890.
Q4 explosion in the making...
KEY TAKEAWAY:
We're in final 34-66 days of the most data-supported bull run in Bitcoin history.
Realistic top target is $160-180K; optimistic $210K+.
Oct 20-Nov 5 is highest-probability peak cluster.
Can I be sure of this?
Hell naw.
But better safe than sorry.
If enjoy this thread, Iād appreciate if you:
1. Follow me @Doctor-Strange for TA alpha
2. Repost
3. Notis on (more coming)
Thanks for all kind comments.
God bless š§”
#StrategyBTCPurchase #BNBBreaksATH #BinanceHODLerZKC #SummerOfSolana? $BTC