As shown in the chart, the altcoin season indicator has already reached 80+. Historical data indicates that every time it reaches here, it signifies that the altcoin season is in the mid to late stage, lasting a few days at the shortest and two to three weeks at the longest.
The reason for the rise of altcoins this time is 100% due to the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, which will be at midnight on September 18th. Therefore, I think before that, one can take profits at a high point. Personally, I will look for a high point near the interest rate cut to short at a low multiple.
The only uncertainty now is whether Powell's speech will be dovish or hawkish. If it's dovish, the decline may be limited, or there might be a temporary rise before a drop. So the volatility on that day will be significant; avoid high multiples and go for low multiples. However, contracts still carry certain risks. If you want to be stable, don't short; just wait and see if there's a pullback, and then buy some at the bottom.
The theoretical target for Dogecoin is 0.32 and 0.35, but I think there's no need to chase the peak excessively. It's fine to sell some at highs or reduce positions by 25% daily, completing the interest arbitrage in 4 days. The key is to remember to finish liquidating by the 17th or 18th at the latest. For Ethereum, we went long when it broke through the 4500 range, with a plan to hold until 4680. As a result, it rose even higher than we expected, which was a pleasant surprise.
Regarding Bitcoin, the major resistance for shorting is still around 117,000 to 117,700. We were very close yesterday, but it feels like we are still a little short. However, there are a few days left until the interest rate cut, so I want to wait a bit longer to see if there are any higher peaks to short from. No need to rush, just take it slow and steady.
