In the past week, the economic data released by the United States indeed supported the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut at the September meeting.

The U.S. CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in August, up to 2.9% year-on-year, with the core CPI increasing by 0.3% month-on-month, maintaining at 3.1% year-on-year, showing a mild upward trend overall. At the same time, data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that in the week ending September 6, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 27,000, reaching 263,000, the highest level since October 2021.

Additionally, the preliminary report from the University of Michigan on September 13 showed that the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index dropped from 58.2 last month to 55.4, hitting a new low since May. In terms of inflation expectations, the preliminary one-year inflation expectation from the University of Michigan for September is 4.8%, and the five-year inflation expectation is 3.9%, the highest since June this year.

The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% on September 17. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders are betting on a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next week, with a 7.3% probability of a 50 basis point cut #美联储降息预期升温 $BNB