As an old player who experienced the two rounds of the crypto bull market in 2017 and 2021, I am well aware that market cycles do not jump out of thin air. Each round of market explosion, fermentation, and conclusion hides traceable rhythmic patterns. Now, with the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts in September looming, the crypto market, especially the altcoin sector, is standing at another critical cycle node. Many investors are asking: Will the interest rate cuts in September directly trigger a market rally? When will the peak appear? How can we accurately escape the peak? In fact, the answer is not in guessing but in reviewing historical patterns and analyzing current market signals.
1. September: Not an explosive period but a "grueling phase" of oscillation and accumulation.
First, break a misconception: September's interest rate cut will not immediately bring altcoins a "straight-line surge," but rather is more likely to be a key period for oscillation accumulation. The current trend of altcoins has already revealed the typical characteristics of "main force accumulation" — frequent horizontal consolidation, repeated pinning events, appearing directionless, yet actually funds are quietly laying out.
This logic of "policy pre-oscillation washout" was fully played out in 2019. In June that year, the Federal Reserve announced interest rate cuts, and before that, Bitcoin oscillated in the $8,000-$10,000 range for nearly two months, while mainstream altcoins like Litecoin and Ethereum fell into a "severe volatility trap": Litecoin dropped from $140 to around $70, then quickly rebounded. Many investors were scared out of their positions by this "up-and-down pinning"; meanwhile, smart funds took advantage of this panic to complete large-scale accumulation.
The essence of the market has never changed: before major policies are implemented, it is necessary to clear out "floating funds" through oscillation — those who lack patience and cannot withstand volatility are doomed to miss out on subsequent profits. Now that September serves as the starting point for the interest rate cut cycle, the market will likely continue this "grueling rhythm": prices will be pulled up and down repeatedly, and the K-line trend may seem chaotic, even deliberately creating a "breakout illusion." But the more it is like this, the less it tests technical analysis skills, and the more it tests investors' patience and determination — if you can withstand the oscillation without throwing away your chips, you may catch the subsequent market.
2. October: Bid farewell to oscillation and enter the "transition period" of slow rise.
After enduring the oscillation in September, October will become a "critical turning point" for the market — shifting from oscillation consolidation to slow rise, and the trend will gradually become clearer upwards.
Once the bottom in September is confirmed, funds will naturally push prices higher, with mainstream altcoins (like ETH, SOL, etc.) and projects with clear narratives (like Layer 2, AI + chain, etc.) leading the way. The increase in this phase will not be particularly exaggerated; it will be more like a slow rise akin to "boiling a frog in warm water," but the key lies in "establishing a trend" — the previously horizontal resistance levels will gradually turn into support levels, market confidence will slowly recover, and off-site funds will start to enter in batches.
The market in November 2020 is the best reference: after experiencing a slow rise in October, Bitcoin gradually rose from $10,000 to $12,000, with altcoins like Chainlink rising by 30% during this period. However, many investors, having lost patience due to the oscillation in September, exited early, ultimately missing out on this wave of "certain rising."
The slow rise in October is essentially a "confirmation and continuation" of the oscillation in September — it won’t give you the excitement of "doubling overnight," but it will quietly fill the "missed opportunity risk." What you should do now is to hold quality chips well, rather than get entangled in "whether to trade" — frequent operations may lead to missing the main trend.
3. November: The real main bullish wave, the "harvest period" for the patient.
The core profits of every bull market have never been in the early oscillation or mid-term slow rise, but in the "main bullish wave phase" like November. This is the iron rule of the market: early grinding of mentality, mid-term testing of patience, and only then does the main bullish wave realize profits.
Looking back at the 2017 bull market, November was truly the "carnival month" for altcoins: Ethereum soared from $300 to $800, Ripple broke through $2 from $0.2, and countless small and medium-cap altcoins rose over 100%; in November 2021, although the bull market was nearing its end, mainstream altcoins like SOL and AVAX still set new historical highs in the main bullish wave.
The main bullish wave in November is often accompanied by three clear signals: market sentiment fully warms up (social media is filled with profit-sharing posts), trading volume significantly increases (off-site funds accelerate entry), and the participation threshold lowers (even newcomers start discussing buying altcoins). In this phase, not only will mainstream altcoins "leave competitors far behind," many small to medium market cap projects with practical scenarios and funding attention will also welcome a "doubling trend" — this is the profit we should get after enduring the oscillation and maintaining the slow rise.
4. Top exit and top judgment: Don’t wait for "clear signals," focus on the "emotional turning points."
Asking "when is the top month" now is still too early — but based on the experience of two bull markets, the top is never "calculated," but rather "observed." The core is to capture the "turning points of emotions and funds."
The peaks in December 2017 and November 2021 shared a common feature: the market was extremely excited, and non-professional investors flooded in. The scenes from back then are still vivid: social media was filled with "crypto-get-rich stories," and even the aunties at the vegetable market were asking, "Which altcoin can double?" The number of new accounts at exchanges surged, and there were even crazy behaviors like "borrowing to trade coins." These are not "signals of a continuing trend," but rather "warnings of a nearby top."
True top exit does not require precise predictions of "specific price points," but rather focuses on two core aspects:
Emotion indicator: When the market starts to hear voices like "this bull market is different, it can rise to the sky," and when people around you who never cared about crypto start actively asking you "how to buy coins," be cautious — this is a sign of overheating emotions.
Technical and fund signals: MACD shows a "top divergence" (price makes a new high, but the indicator does not), RSI stays in the overbought zone for a long time (above 70), and net inflows of funds at exchanges suddenly decrease. These signals combined with overheating emotions are the best time to exit the top.
Remember: The top never comes down "all at once," but rather "falls after repeated inducements." There is no need to pursue "selling at the highest point," as long as you can exit near the "emotional turning point," you have already outperformed 90% of investors.
5. What should be done now: Patience is worth more than operation, and spot holdings are more reliable than leverage.
The biggest risk in the current market is not a slight price drop, but rather "disordered mentality" — especially for investors using leverage, recent pinning events can lead to liquidations with just one K-line. You think you’ve caught the bottom, but it’s actually just becoming "fuel" for the main force to wash out.
I have a real case around me: In May 2021, a friend added 10x leverage to a long position during Ethereum's pinning event, resulting in a price drop of 20% in an instant, leading to forced liquidation, and tens of thousands of principal vanished overnight. However, if he had held spot, even after experiencing fluctuations, he wouldn’t have lost everything — this is the risk of leverage and the key to "surviving" in a bull market.
The current market is still in the early stage of oscillation and has not truly broken out; there is no need for excessive interpretation. Here are two suggestions for all investors:
If your position is still there: Don’t operate frequently, and certainly don’t add leverage. Holding spot gives you the most stable confidence — even if September oscillates again and October slowly rises, as long as you have your chips, you can wait for November's main bullish wave.
If your position is gone / you want to increase positions: Either wait for a "real major correction" (for example, mainstream altcoins drop over 20%), or just don’t act — frequent chasing up and down will only make you "do less and less" in oscillation, ultimately missing the main trend.
Those who truly make money in a bull market are never the ones who "chase up and down every day," but rather those who "hold good chips at critical positions and stubbornly hold them." Just like in 2017 and 2021, those who could seize the main bullish wave from the oscillation ultimately made money; while those who aim for "short-term trades and quick profits" either missed out or got liquidated.
Finally: The rhythm is clear, just wait for the wind.
The altcoin market under the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has already begun. The rhythm of September's oscillation and accumulation, October's slow rise, and November's main bull trend — this rhythm is not something I guessed out of thin air but is a pattern summarized from two bull markets, and it is also a path that the current market signals are validating.
What should be done now is not to be anxious about "whether to increase positions" or "whether to trade," but rather:
Choose quality targets (mainstream altcoins + narrative-driven project tracks);
Use spare money to build positions, hold spot, and stay away from leverage;
Filter out market noise (don’t let daily pinning and fluctuations affect your mentality).
Having experienced the ups and downs of two bull markets, I know that the market will not disappoint those who are patient. The current oscillation is to build momentum for the subsequent rise; the patience now is to realize profits in the main bullish wave of November.
Old Ma only does live trading, and the team still has a few spots available. Friends who want to keep up with the rhythm and grasp the main bullish wave can join in time — we do not pursue short-term fluctuations, but rather capture certain cycles, using solid rhythm judgment to secure every round of core profits in a bull market.
