As an old player who has experienced the 2017 ICO frenzy and the two bull markets of DeFi and NFT in 2021, I understand the market cycle's script of 'grinding - rising - madness - collapse' very well. Currently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations feel like a waterlogged sponge, heavily weighing on the global market—especially in the cryptocurrency circle, where many are fixated on the altcoin K-line, their eyes nearly burning with intensity. Will the rate cut in September directly ignite the market? How to exit precisely at the peak? Which month is the top likely to fall in? Behind these questions lies a dual grasp of 'people's sentiment' and 'capital' within the market rhythm.
Let me pour a cold bucket of water: The probability of a rate cut in September will not immediately send altcoins skyrocketing. Instead, it is more likely to be a phase where the main players use a 'oscillation filter' to sift out chips — you see those altcoins recently, either they oscillate back and forth in a narrow range, like ETC oscillating between $18 and $22 for nearly three weeks; or they suddenly spike, like SOL suddenly plunging from $105 to $92 a few days ago, only to rebound within half an hour. This combination of 'sideways + spike' is a typical characteristic of accumulating chips before major events.
Before the Federal Reserve's rate cut in June 2019, the market almost replicated this operation. Bitcoin lingered in the $8000-$10000 range for a full 7 weeks, with daily fluctuations not exceeding 5%, but trading volume quietly increased by 30%. Even more aggressive were altcoins; on the day Litecoin dropped from $140 to below $70, I remember the community was filled with cries of 'Litecoin is finished.' A retail investor I know sold at $68, only for the price to bounce back to $110 three days later — later it was revealed that the main address behind that sell-off acquired nearly 1 billion Litecoins below $70.
The market oscillates to wash out positions before policy changes, essentially 'cleaning out floating chips.' Those who can't hold on, who trade based on K-line short-term signals, or who fear liquidation while using leverage, panic and sell at the first sign of a spike, conveniently handing bloody chips to the main players. This smart money is never in a rush to push prices up, but rather lies like a crocodile in the water, waiting for the prey to come to them. September, as the starting point of the rate cut cycle, will see this 'grueling' oscillation happen more frequently — you might see a 5% rise in the morning making you think it’s about to start, only to see an 8% drop in the afternoon making you doubt the bottom, and in reality, it's all just testing your patience.
October: Slow Rising 'Awakening Period'
Looking at the rhythm, starting in October, the market will wake up like a lion that has just risen. Once the bottom chips are absorbed sufficiently, funds will naturally push prices up, and it will definitely be the mainstream altcoins and projects with clear narratives that move first. The increase in this phase won't be too exaggerated, but the trend will become clearer — just like climbing a mountain, finally passing the steep gravel slope and starting on a gentler incline.
The market situation in November 2020 is an example. At that time, after the Federal Reserve launched unlimited QE in the third month, Bitcoin slowly climbed from $10,000 to $12,000 in October, rising 1%-2% daily — it didn't look exciting, but it formed three consecutive weekly bullish candles. Among altcoins, Chainlink rose from $12 to $16, an increase of just over 30%. Many people felt 'the rise is too slow' and ran to chase those small coins that rose 20% in a day, only for Chainlink to surge to $25 during the main uptrend in November, while those small coins had long fallen back to their original forms.
The slow rise in October is actually a 'confirmation signal' of September's oscillation. At this time, market confidence will gradually return: new users on exchanges will start to increase, posts discussing 'which altcoin to buy' will become more frequent on Weibo, and even retail investors who previously cut losses will start to quietly ask 'Can we get on now?' But because September's oscillation has shaken off too many people, many will feel 'this rise isn't solid,' making them hesitant to enter; by the time they react, they have already missed the safest entry opportunity.
November: The 'Carnival Period' of the Main Uptrend
When November arrives, the real main uptrend will surge like a flood — that's when those of us who have endured for two months will truly start counting money. Every bull market follows this pattern: first, it tests your will to live, then it rises to levels you can hardly believe, and finally, it gets crazy enough to make you want to increase your position.
I still vividly remember the madness of November 2017. Ethereum rose from $300 to $800 in just 18 days; every day when I opened the market software, the increase was over 10%; Ripple was even more exaggerated, surging from $0.2 to $2, with someone in the community shouting 'Target $10.' Even my mother called to ask 'Should I invest my retirement money?' At that time, the exchange's app crashed every day due to excessive buying; WeChat groups were filled with people flaunting their profits, with one person showing a screenshot of '50,000 principal turning into 5 million,' and a bunch of people asking 'Looking for a guide.'
The main uptrend in November is often accompanied by three signals: First, trading volume; the daily trading volume of major altcoins can exceed five times that of September. Second, sentiment; even those who usually don't touch cryptocurrencies start asking 'How to buy?'. Third, narrative; concepts that no one mentioned before (like Layer 2 in 2021) suddenly become hot topics, with every project able to find a 'doubling reason.' At this time, not only do mainstream coins rise, but even those ranked outside the top 200 can rise by 300% just by 'riding the wave.'
The Key to Timing the Market: Don't Believe 'This Time Is Different'
Many people ask 'When exactly is the top?', but no one can predict it precisely; however, signals can help us judge. The tops in December 2017 and November 2021 had a common point: the market was filled with voices saying 'This time is different.'
In December 2017, some said 'Bitcoin will reach $100,000 because institutions are starting to enter'; in November 2021, some shouted 'Ethereum can reach $100,000 because it became deflationary after the merge.' But in reality, when even the local market aunties know 'buying cryptocurrencies can lead to wealth,' when people in your circle who never understood finance start flaunting their crypto gains, and when the media headlines are all about 'cryptocurrencies rewriting wealth rules,' the top is not far away.
The specific operations for timing the market I summarize into three 'nos': Don't chase the small coins that have just doubled (these coins are the easiest for the main players to dump), don't use leverage (the volatility at the top is enormous; a single red candle can lead to liquidation), and don't reinvest all profits (at least withdraw your principal first). Technical indicators can also be referenced; for example, at the top of Bitcoin in December 2017, the RSI was above 80 for 10 consecutive days (overbought), and MACD showed a top divergence; in November 2021, Ethereum also showed these two signals at its top.
Current strategy: Hold onto spot, avoid leverage.
What you should do now is not to stare at the market every day guessing rises and falls, but to stabilize your mindset. Especially for those who have used leverage, the recent spike is a 'meat grinder' — a few days ago, BSV spiked from $100 to $70, and I saw at least 20 people in the leverage group say their 10x longs were liquidated, some even used loans to play, directly losing half a year's salary.
I still remember the spike in May 2021 vividly. At that time, Ethereum suddenly dropped from $3000 to $2400, and a friend of mine used 10x leverage, intending to 'buy the dip,' but ended up getting liquidated instantly, losing over $400,000. He later told me that watching his account balance turn to 0 made his hands tremble. But if he had held spot, although it would have also dropped 20%, Ethereum later bounced back to $4000, and he wouldn't have lost anything.
The current market is still oscillating within the previous range — Bitcoin hasn't broken $28000, Ethereum hasn't broken $1800, and the declines in mainstream altcoins haven't exceeded 30%, which doesn’t count as 'breaking down.' Those holding chips should hold steady, and not think about 'trading to lower costs' every day; for most, the more they trade, the higher the cost becomes. For those with light positions, either wait for a clear signal after September's oscillation ends, or just don't act; frequent operations will only get you washed out before the main uptrend.
In a bull market, those who truly make money are never the 'quick hands' chasing and selling daily, but rather the 'foolish' ones who remain steadfast at key positions like old tree roots. In 2017, I held onto Ethereum from $80 to $800 without selling; in 2021, I held onto Solana from $20 to $200 without selling — it's not that I'm particularly skilled, but simply that I resisted the impulse to 'sell high and buy low' midway.
Remember this: Patience is worth 100 times more than skill. Don't panic during September's oscillation, don't be restless during October's slow rise, and don't be greedy during November's main uptrend. The market's rhythm has long been written in history; what we need to do is hold onto our spot positions, filter out the noise of 'it will crash tomorrow' or 'it will double soon,' and when the wind comes, you will naturally be on the windward side.
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