Currently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations loom over the global market like a dark cloud, and many cryptocurrency investors are closely watching the next moves of altcoins. Will the interest rate cut in September ignite the market? How can we accurately avoid the peak? When will the peak appear? Behind these questions is a profound grasp of market rhythm.
September: Key period for accumulating through fluctuations
First, it is important to clarify that the interest rate cut in September will not immediately lead to a surge in altcoin prices. On the contrary, this is more likely to be a phase of accumulating through fluctuations. Based on the current market performance, altcoins are building a new bottom, and frequent occurrences of sideways movements and pin bar trends are typical characteristics of accumulation before significant events.
In June 2019, when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the market played out a similar scenario. At that time, Bitcoin oscillated between $8,000 and $10,000 for nearly two months, while altcoins like Litecoin and Ethereum experienced multiple spike events. During that period, Litecoin dropped from $140 to around $70 but quickly rebounded, scaring off many investors with such severe volatility, who then handed over their chips, while the main funds took the opportunity to buy in large quantities.
The market often experiences choppy consolidation before significant policy changes, aiming to clear out floating chips and allow truly patient investors to acquire chips. Many investors panic-sell at the sight of spikes, resulting in handing over bottom chips to smart money. These smart funds are never in a hurry; they will take the opportunity to continuously collect chips to prepare for the upcoming main upward trend.
September, as the starting point of the interest rate cut cycle, will likely be dominated by choppy consolidation. The market will fluctuate up and down repeatedly, making the trend extremely uncomfortable, but this is the most genuine logic of the market. This kind of trend tests the patience and composure of investors rather than simply their technical analysis ability.
October: The transition period of slow upward movement
From a rhythm perspective, starting in October, the market will gradually enter a phase of slow upward movement. Once the bottom is confirmed, capital will naturally push prices up, with mainstream altcoins and narrative projects taking the lead. The characteristic of this phase is a relatively moderate increase, but the trend is already clearly upward.
The market in November 2020 was like this; after experiencing a slow rise in October, Bitcoin gradually rose from around $10,000 to $12,000, while altcoins like Chainlink saw an increase of around 30% during this period. The slow rise in October was a continuation and confirmation of the choppy consolidation in September. During this phase, market confidence gradually recovers, and more external capital begins to pay attention and enter the market. However, due to the previous choppy fluctuations, many investors may have already left, missing this stage of upward movement.
November: The harvest period of the main upward trend
When November arrives, the real main upward wave will come, and that will be our time to harvest. Every round of a bull market follows this path: early on, it tests the mindset; in the mid-term, it constantly tests patience; and only in the end does it bring about the wealth effect.
Looking back at the bull market in 2017, November became a carnival month for altcoins. At that time, Ethereum skyrocketed from around $300 to $800, and Ripple rose from $0.2 to over $2, with many altcoins increasing by more than 100%. The main upward trend in November is usually accompanied by a significant warming of market sentiment, a substantial increase in trading volume, and broader market participation. During this phase, not only will mainstream altcoins perform strongly, but many promising small to mid-cap projects will also usher in their own highlights.
How to escape the peak and judgment of the top
Regarding escaping the peak and timing, it is indeed still too early to judge. However, based on historical experience, a peak usually forms when market sentiment is extremely euphoric and new capital floods in. It may appear at the end of the year or early next year, but it needs to be judged in conjunction with the market sentiment, capital flow, and macro environment at that time.
The peaks in December 2017 and November 2021 both had such characteristics. At that time, social media was filled with stories of getting rich from cryptocurrencies, even the aunties at the vegetable market were discussing which altcoins to buy, and the number of new investors opening accounts surged, all of which were signals that the top was near.
The key to escaping the peak lies in paying attention to market sentiment indicators and capital flows. When the market begins to hear voices like 'this time is different,' when non-professional investors rush in, and when the media starts to extensively report on the wealth stories of cryptocurrencies, it often signals that the top is near. At the same time, technical indicators can provide some references, such as the MACD showing a top divergence and the RSI entering the overbought range.
Current strategy: Patience is more valuable than action
What is most feared now is not a slight drop in price, but a chaotic mindset. Especially for investors who are still using leverage, the frequent spike events in recent days can often wipe out the entire leveraged position in one spike. You may think you have bought at the bottom, but in reality, you have only become the fuel for the market makers.
I know an investor who, during the spike event in May 2021, was forced to liquidate his Ethereum long positions due to using 10x leverage, suffering heavy losses after a sudden 20% drop in price. Had he held spot, he would have experienced price fluctuations but would not have lost everything.
The market is still oscillating within the previous price range, without any real breakouts, and there is no need for excessive interpretation. For those who have lost their positions and want to add, either wait for a real major correction, or simply do nothing, as frequent operations will only lead to diminishing returns.
I have always emphasized that the one who does not act wins. In a bull market, those who truly make money are often not those who chase highs and lows every day, but those who hold good chips at critical positions and steadfastly do not move. Holding the spot in hand is the most solid confidence. When the market truly starts to run, you will naturally be able to enjoy the full wave, rather than being tormented by short-term fluctuations every day.
Next, remember this saying: Patience is more valuable than action. Do not be carried away by short-term emotions, do not fantasize about doubling your investment overnight, and do not let leverage exhaust your principal. September is for oscillation, October is for slow rise, and November is for the main upward trend; the rhythm has already been written in the market. What you really need to do is hold your spot, filter out the noise, and wait for the wind to come.
As a participant who has gone through two bull markets, I deeply understand that the market will not disappoint those who are patient. The altcoin market under the interest rate cut cycle has already begun, and the key is to grasp the rhythm, maintain composure, and make the right decisions at the right time.
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