1. Expectations for Federal Reserve Rate Cuts and Market Reactions

1. The consensus for a rate cut in September has been established

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on September 18. The CME 'FedWatch' indicates a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, with some institutions predicting a potential 50 basis point cut to address a weak job market and easing inflation. Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole annual meeting further reinforced this expectation, with the market generally viewing the rate cut as a 'preventive adjustment' rather than a crisis response.2. Capital Flows and Market Divergence

Expectations for a rate cut have driven capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market. In August, there was a net inflow of $337.6 million into Ethereum funds, while Bitcoin funds saw an outflow of $23 million, indicating that institutions prefer Ethereum's staking returns and ecological potential. Additionally, the issuance of stablecoins reached a record high, reflecting investors' preference for low-risk, high-liquidity assets.

II. Performance of Mainstream Cryptocurrencies

1. Ethereum Strongly Leads the Market

Ethereum surged 15% in a single day after Powell's speech, breaking through the historical high of $4954, mainly driven by the following factors:

Increased Institutional Allocation: Asset management giants like BlackRock accelerate their layout in Ethereum spot ETFs, with corporate holdings reaching $10.1 billion.

Staking and Deflation Mechanism: 26% of ETH is locked in staking, combined with the EIP-1559 burning mechanism, the circulation continues to tighten.

Layer 2 Expansion Maturity: Decreased transaction costs attract developers and users back.

2. Bitcoin Volatility Adjustment

Bitcoin has recently consolidated in the range of $110,000 to $112,500, failing to break through the $120,000 resistance level due to:

Good news has been priced in early: interest rate cut expectations have been fully priced by the market, increasing profit-taking pressure for institutions.

Technical Pressure: $114,000 constitutes strong resistance, and the seasonal pattern in September shows a higher historical probability of Bitcoin's decline.

Market Sentiment Shift: Funds are moving towards more volatile altcoins, with Bitcoin's dominance dropping from 65% to 59%.

3. Altcoin Surge and Risks

Solana, Cardano, and others have risen over 10%, but market leverage risks have intensified. On August 22, the single-day liquidation amount reached $694 million, with short positions accounting for 70%. Analysis points out that if ETH stabilizes above $5000, altcoins may fully explode, but one should be wary of severe pullbacks due to insufficient liquidity.

III. Divergence of Opinions Among Industry Insiders

1. Optimistic Faction: Interest Rate Cuts Drive Long-Term Upward Trends

Goldman Sachs: Expects three interest rate cuts in 2025, with cryptocurrencies benefiting from liquidity easing as risk assets, and Ethereum may hit $7000.

Arthur Hayes: If interest rates are cut by 50 basis points, trillions of dollars may flow into DeFi, and tokens like ENA may surge significantly.

2. Cautious Faction: Beware of 'Sell the Fact' Risks

Kronos Research: Interest rate cuts may reflect economic weakness; if no new capital flows in, Bitcoin may maintain its volatility.

Chongqing Lawyer Jiang Ouyang: After the September interest rate cut, the market may see a 'high position selling' trend, recommending short positions in the short term.

IV. Impact on the Global Market

1. Capital Flow and Exchange Rate

An interest rate cut may lead to a weaker dollar, increasing capital inflows into emerging markets. The People's Bank of China may also implement simultaneous easing, benefiting A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, but the appreciation of the renminbi may weaken export competitiveness.

2. Traditional Finance and Cryptocurrency Linkage

The correlation between US tech stocks and cryptocurrencies has increased, with blockchain concept stocks like Coinbase rising over 6%. Additionally, gold prices have surpassed $3600 per ounce, creating a substitute effect with cryptocurrencies.

V. Risk Warning

1. Policy and Data Volatility

If September's employment or inflation data exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may adjust the interest rate cut magnitude, triggering severe market fluctuations.

2. Regulatory Uncertainty

With the US elections approaching, policy tendencies may change, and the SEC's approval process for cryptocurrency ETFs is uncertain.

3. Technology and Liquidity Risk

Ethereum Layer 2 expansion may divert demand from the mainnet, and some altcoins may lack liquidity and be easily manipulated.$BTC

$ETH

Summary and Recommendations

The Federal Reserve's September interest rate cut expectations have profoundly affected the cryptocurrency market. Ethereum, bolstered by ecological advantages and institutional support, leads the charge, while Bitcoin faces dual pressures from technology and sentiment. Investors may focus on the following directions:

Long-Term Allocation: Ethereum, staking ecosystem tokens, and compliant DeFi projects.

Short-Term Strategy: Accumulate Bitcoin spot positions on dips and avoid high-leverage contracts.

Risk Hedging: Diversify investments between mainstream coins and stablecoins, paying attention to policy and data release points.

It is recommended to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's decision on September 18 and subsequent economic data to adjust positions in a timely manner.#美联储降息预期升温 #加密市场反弹