Polymarket's recent bet has become popular: Who will be the next Fed Chair nominated after Trump takes office? In the market, Chris Waller has the highest odds, once soaring to over 30%. Interestingly, the probability of 'no announcement this year' is close to 40%.
Why is everyone betting on Waller? He is dovish on interest rates and has publicly stated 'there should be a 25bp rate cut', which is obviously favorable for risk assets; regarding crypto, he has repeatedly emphasized not to demonize new technologies, even acknowledging the financial role of stablecoins. This combination perfectly aligns with the Trump team's narrative of 'easing + crypto-friendly'.
The biggest significance of this matter is not who gets elected, but that the market is trading on expectations. Once Waller's odds continue to rise, the altcoins driven by BTC and ETH might start to ferment in advance; stablecoins, RWA, and on-chain payment-related tokens will also be pushed to the center of the narrative. Conversely, if there is a long period of 'no announcement', hot money may retreat, and funds could return to large-cap assets for safety.
If Waller really can take office, will the Fed's 'crypto-friendly + easing' become the trigger for the next wave of market movement?
