Munger has emphasized "probabilistic thinking" and "accepting reality" throughout his life.

The world is complex and full of uncertainty.

We can never predict the future with precision. Therefore, what we can do is not to pursue certainty, but to make better decisions under the premise of acknowledging uncertainty.

In this regard, Munger has made two statements:

1. "(In investing) the whole trick of the game is that you have to accurately judge when a few rare opportunities arise, that it is better than the usual opportunities, and then only bet at that time. You cannot make a lot of decisions everywhere and expect to outperform the market."

2. "We are keen on keeping things simple, and placing heavy bets when opportunities arise. This is a hallmark of an excellent investor. We try to find a company that has a wide and durable economic moat. And we have no opinion on 95% of the stocks."

These two statements are a clear expression of Munger's thoughts on "probabilistic thinking" and "accepting reality." Precisely because the world is uncertain and opportunities are scarce, we should focus on things that we can understand and have higher certainty about, rather than pretending to understand everything.