Many people focus on the dollar price of Bitcoin shouting 'It's risen too much,' but few notice a hidden signal: if we use 'gold' as a measure (that is, priced in gold standard), Bitcoin has hardly risen since the cycle low in November 2022! This means that — in this round of the bull market, the core logic of 'digital gold replacement' has actually not yet started, and by 2033, if Bitcoin's market value exceeds gold, we still have 8 years and 10 times the opportunity in our hands!
First understand: what is 'Bitcoin under the gold standard'? Understand in one sentence
Simply put, it measures Bitcoin's value by 'how many grams of gold can be exchanged for 1 Bitcoin,' rather than looking at how many dollars it can be exchanged for.
For example, in November 2022, 1 Bitcoin could be exchanged for about 1200 grams of gold; now (in 2025), 1 Bitcoin can still only be exchanged for about 1200 grams of gold—despite Bitcoin's dollar price rising from $15,000 to $60,000 over the past two years, when converted to gold, it hasn't increased at all!
It's like this: The money you have has risen in dollar terms, but when exchanged for grain (hard currency), it hasn't risen, which indicates that the 'real value' hasn't changed. One of Bitcoin's 'real value anchors' is gold, so the lack of increase in the gold standard means that its 'bull market replacing gold' hasn't started yet.
The contrast is striking: The fiat currency standard is skyrocketing, while the gold standard is 'lying flat.'
Let's look at two sets of data; you'll see how disruptive it is:
Fiat currency standard (dollars): The low point in November 2022 was about $15,000 per coin, and now it's about $60,000 per coin in 2025. It has tripled in two years, which seems like a bull market;
Gold standard (exchanging for gold): In November 2022, it could be exchanged for about 1200 grams of gold (when gold was about $125 per gram). In 2025, it can still be exchanged for about 1200 grams of gold (now gold is about $500 per gram)—the dollar price has risen, but the 'ability to exchange for gold' has not increased!
Why is this the case? Because in the past two years, the dollar price of gold has also risen (from $125 per gram to $500 per gram), and Bitcoin's dollar increase has been 'offset' by the dollar increase of gold. This indicates that Bitcoin has not yet truly 'outperformed' gold and has not begun to capture gold's 'value preservation share'—and this is where Bitcoin's greatest upside potential lies!
Let's do the math: How will Bitcoin surpass gold in 2033, with a tenfold space in 8 years?
Don't think that 'Bitcoin surpassing gold' is a far-fetched idea; we can calculate it using market values to see how real it is:
Current market value comparison:
Total market value of gold: about $12 trillion (approximately 200,000 tons of gold have been mined globally, calculated at $500 per gram);
Bitcoin's total market value: about $1.2 trillion (currently $60,000 per coin, total supply of 21 million coins, approximately 19.5 million coins mined);
The gap: Bitcoin's current market value is only 1/10th that of gold!
How much does it need to rise to surpass gold in 2033?
Assuming in 2033, the total market value of gold remains at $12 trillion (a conservative estimate, after all, gold is still being produced every year), for Bitcoin to surpass gold, its total market value must reach at least $12 trillion or more.
Based on Bitcoin's total supply of 21 million coins: $12 trillion ÷ 21 million coins ≈ $570,000 per coin.
Currently, Bitcoin is about $60,000 per coin, and 570,000 ÷ 60,000 ≈ 9.5 times—almost a tenfold increase!
Why can it surpass gold? Three irreversible logics.
Replacement speed is accelerating: More and more institutions are treating Bitcoin as 'digital gold' (such as Blackstone, Fidelity). After the spot ETF is approved in 2024, tens of billions of dollars will flow in daily to seize the opportunity;
The 'disadvantages' of gold are being amplified: Gold is difficult to transport, expensive to store, and troublesome to divide, while Bitcoin transfers take only 5 minutes, are globally accepted, and can be divided down to one hundred millionth (Satoshi). People in the digital age are more willing to choose the latter;
Total advantage: Gold is still being mined every year (about 3000 tons/year), while Bitcoin's total supply is fixed at 21 million. After the two halving events in 2024 and 2028, the new supply will decrease, making it scarcer than gold.
Final reminder: Don't be fooled by the dollar price! The gold standard is the 'truth mirror.'
Many people feel that 'Bitcoin has risen too high to buy,' but if viewed from the gold standard, it is still 'lying flat' near the lows of 2022—just like when Bitcoin was priced at $2000 in 2015, it also didn't rise when viewed in terms of gold, but later it surged to $20,000, with the gold standard also increasing tenfold.
The current situation is quite similar: The rise in the dollar price is just 'warming up'; the real bull market is the process where Bitcoin starts to outperform gold and capture gold's market value—this process has just begun, and we have 8 years to wait for a tenfold increase.
How long do you think it will take for Bitcoin to surpass gold? Will it happen before 2030, or do we have to wait until 2033? Share your thoughts in the comments, and let's track this 'digital gold replacement' opportunity together!
After this modification, it both pokes at fans' cognitive blind spots with 'comparative data' and makes the tenfold space more credible with 'calculations,' while finally guiding discussion through interaction. If you want to add specific suggestions for 'how ordinary people should position themselves' (like dollar-cost averaging, using the gold standard to determine entry points), or supplement recent cases of institutions increasing their Bitcoin holdings, let me know anytime, and we can deepen the content together~#上市公司囤币潮 #现货黄金创历史新高
