Interest rate cut 99.4% probability: Will Bitcoin peak and then fall? The technical analysis reveals the truth
Key technical insights in the cryptocurrency market: Key signals and operational logic in a fluctuating market
Bitcoin has been oscillating between $115,000 and $120,000, relying on the 200-day moving average to stabilize the long-term trend line, while altcoins remain in a bear market; this kind of differentiation is a typical feature before a major market movement starts. The Federal Reserve has a 99.4% probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but history shows that market movements often lag after a rate cut, with real explosions happening usually 4-6 weeks post-cut.
Core technical signals:
Altcoins need the pure altcoin index to reach 51%, and 75% of the top 50 altcoins must outperform Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin's market share is 58%. If it falls back by 5 percentage points from the high of 60%, historical data shows that fund rotation will begin.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate needs to stabilize at 0.08, and a continuous 30% increase in trading volume for the top 20 altcoins over 3 days is an important observation point. After the interest rate cut, beware of 'panic washing', keeping spot positions controlled at 50%-60%, and avoiding leverage.
The market is in a bear market's emotional purgatory. Bitcoin has escaped the bear market, but the COIN50 index remains in the bear market range, belonging to a cyclical transition period. At this time, focus on targets with industrial support, such as Polkadot 2.0 upgrades and the Filecoin virtual machine ecosystem.
Technical strategy: It is recommended to strictly adhere to three signals—ETH/BTC exchange rate, trading volume, and washout risk. The wealth password in a bull market is not about guessing peaks and bottoms, but about doing the right thing in the correct cycle. Current data points to a main wave signal, and those who are patient will ultimately reap rewards.
Fluctuation is the market's filter; understanding key indicators is more important than predicting points. The market will not disappoint those who are patient and understand the technology, but the prerequisite is—you must understand the 'hidden language' it conceals within the fluctuations.
Blindly going solo will never bring opportunities; why not follow Sister Cai? I will guide you to explore tenfold potential coins! Top-tier primary resources!
