📊 Non-farm payroll is here! Will the US face an economic recession? You'll understand after reading this 😎#非农就业数据来袭
The latest US report #非农数据 has hit the market like a bomb 🔥—job growth has significantly declined, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve might need to cut interest rates by 50 basis points instead of 25? But strangely, the unemployment rate remains stable, showing no signs of deterioration 🤔
Why is there this "contradiction"? The key lies in the two indicators in the non-farm report:
1️⃣ Job Growth: A corporate survey where the government asks companies how many new positions have been created, directly reflecting new jobs.
2️⃣ Unemployment Rate: A household survey where the government calls to ask whether household members are employed, with complex criteria, and the US has a very narrow definition of "unemployed"—those who have completely given up looking for work are not counted as unemployed.
A simple example: out of 10,000 people, if 7,000 are employed and 500 are unemployed, the unemployment rate is 6.7%. If 300 people give up looking for work, the unemployment rate drops directly to 2.9% 😳
Moreover, due to differences in surveys, for instance, people working two jobs are counted as two positions in corporate statistics, but only as one person in household surveys, so the unemployment rate appears low on the surface, but the actual situation may not be so optimistic.
Therefore, looking solely at the non-farm unemployment rate has little reference value 💡. It's more reliable to cross-verify with the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) and other indicators, especially considering that AI developments may replace some jobs; a low unemployment rate does not mean there are no economic risks.
In summary: non-farm payroll is not magic; it merely helps you assess market direction 📈. Both excessive tightening and excessive loosening are unhealthy, and real opportunities often lie at these "unhealthy" turning points ⚡