Tonight at 8:30 PM, the U.S. non-farm payroll report for August will be released, which is a 'nuclear button' that can ignite market sentiment! Everyone is watching closely, as this set of data will directly impact how the Federal Reserve adjusts monetary policy in September.

The market is guessing that the non-farm payrolls in August can increase by 75,000, and the unemployment rate will slightly rise to 4.3%. This expectation itself indicates that the economy may be on a slight downturn. If the actual data is much worse than expected, especially if the new jobs created are less than 40,000 and the unemployment rate rises to above 4.4%, then the market will definitely be clamoring for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.


In Chuan Ge's view, tonight's non-farm data reflects not only the state of the economy but also the key to policy games. The immigration policies and tariff measures of the Trump administration have been affecting the labor market. The Federal Reserve is also in a dilemma now; if the data is too poor, although the expectations for interest rate cuts have become stronger, everyone may still worry about an economic recession.


Chuan Ge thinks that slightly worse data is best for the market, as it can make everyone feel that there will be a 25 basis point rate cut in September without causing panic.


Let’s talk about the impact on the market. If the data is much worse than expected, everyone will definitely think that the Federal Reserve will intensify its rate cuts, which may lead to a drop in the dollar, while safe-haven assets like gold may rise. Conversely, if the data is unexpectedly good, such as new jobs exceeding 100,000, people may have to reconsider whether the Federal Reserve will be so dovish, which could lead to a rise in the dollar and a drop in gold and silver.


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