Joao Vedson, founder and head of the analytical platform Alphractal, warns: Bitcoin has only one month left until the end of the current four-year cycle. But his forecast includes an unexpected turn of events.
Fractal analysis points to October
In 2024, Vedson indicated that October 2025 may mark the end of the four-year Bitcoin price cycle. If his forecast is correct, the current bull market will come to an end.
"Of course, it would be reckless to claim that Bitcoin has just over a month left in this cycle based solely on this chart," the analyst admits. However, he then presents an interesting short-term scenario: in his opinion, the remaining time may be enough for $BTC to first drop to the $100,000 mark, and then soar above $140,000 before the start of a bear market.
At the same time, the long-term outlook looks much gloomier. If the four-year cycle maintains its strength, a drop to $50,000 could occur within the bear market of 2026.
Additional risk factors
This cycle is fundamentally different from previous ones due to the presence of large institutional investors and the transformation of Bitcoin into a full-fledged financial asset. "The real question is whether this fractal will remain reliable in the face of active speculation around #etf and growing institutional demand," Vedson notes.
The analyst claims that the intrigue is heightened by the fact that Elon Musk allegedly recently hinted at the possibility that Trump might trigger a bear market in the fourth quarter of 2025. Vedson also states that in 2021, Musk mysteriously predicted the exact peak of Bitcoin at $69,000 several months in advance with a single post. However, Vedson's claims find no substantiation.
The end of an era or a new beginning?
The analyst candidly shares his thoughts: "Personally, I am eagerly awaiting whether the new crypto enthusiasts who claim that the 4-year cycle has ended and Bitcoin will now rise indefinitely are right — or if 2025 will be the last gasp before a sharp correction when prices could fall below $50,000 in the bear market of 2026."
Vedson acknowledges the limitations of his forecasts, calling them mere theories and ironically noting that only Satoshi Nakamoto truly knows the real plans for Bitcoin. October will reveal whether Bitcoin maintains its bullish momentum or if the four-year cycle will indeed prevail.
