Tonight we need to keep a close eye on the non-farm payroll data! With a 99.3% expectation of an interest rate hike, how should the data "cooperate"?

The non-farm payroll data will be released tonight at 8:30 PM, so let's clarify the key logic in advance—after all, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September has skyrocketed to 99.3% on CME. If the data "hits the right point," the subsequent rate hike pace will basically be stable.

First, let's clarify the basic data so we have a baseline:

- Non-farm employment population: previous value 73,000, market expectation 75,000;

- Non-farm unemployment rate: previous value 4.2%, market expectation 4.3%.

Some may ask, what kind of non-farm data counts as "cooperating" with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectation? Simply put, to make the September rate hike "make sense," the data needs to lean towards the direction of "tightening policy." It's not that stronger employment is always better; instead, it needs to have a bit of "just the right coolness"—for example, if the employment population is not as high as expected, and the unemployment rate rises slightly.

To be specific, if the non-farm employment population released tonight is below 75,000 (not meeting expectations), while the unemployment rate is above 4.3% (exceeding expectations), this would effectively give the Federal Reserve a "reason to raise rates": it won't seem like the economy is overheating out of control, nor will it make the market think "the economy is weak, so no need to raise rates," perfectly aligning with the current 99.3% rate hike probability, which would facilitate smoother implementation of future policies.

Of course, this "makeshift" non-farm data can stir the market every time. Everyone should keep an eye on the market tonight—not just the numbers jumping, but focus on whether it conforms to this "interest rate hike cooperation logic"—after all, once the data is released, whether in the cryptocurrency market or other markets, it is highly likely to follow the expected trend. #非农就业数据来袭 $BTC $ETH