Let me clarify for friends who just entered the circle: Tonight's unemployment benefit data is at most 'an appetizer', while tomorrow's non-farm payrolls are the real 'main course'—but there’s really no need to panic. Let’s break down the logic into simple terms and avoid several common pitfalls to understand how this wave of market movement will actually unfold.
1. First, clarify the core: data is not just a numbers game, it is a 'direction indicator for interest rate cuts'.
You don’t need to memorize complex definitions; just understand one logic: the unemployment benefits and non-farm payroll data are essentially used to judge 'how good is the US job market'—and the state of the job market is directly related to whether the Federal Reserve will 'cut rates'.
Here’s a key point: Lowering interest rates means more money in the market. Assets like crypto and gold often benefit from this; if employment is too good, and the Federal Reserve thinks there’s no need to cut rates, then market liquidity won't be as loose, and crypto may fluctuate in the short term. So looking at these two data points is essentially trying to guess 'will there be money coming into the market next?'.
2. How will the crypto market move? ETH 4000, BTC 105000 is not a 'mandate'.
You may have come across terms like 'institutions press down prices to accumulate' and 'bull-bear boundary'. They sound profound, but if you break them down into two points, you’ll understand:
1. Why might institutions 'press down prices'? They want to grab chips at a lower cost.
Some institutions mentioned earlier, like American Bitcoin and The Ether Machine, which are hoarding ETH and BTC, are now slowly accumulating. Before the data is announced, the market is prone to panic (after all, no one knows how good the data will be), and some institutions may take advantage of this 'uncertainty' to slightly push down prices—scaring retail investors into selling quickly, then they buy low, which is what is commonly referred to as 'accumulating chips'.
But I must remind you: this is just a 'possibility', not something that will definitely happen. Don't get overly fixated on 'institutions wanting to press down prices' and guess; either you’re afraid of missing out and rush to buy, or you’re afraid of being trapped and hurry to sell, which can easily lead to the opposite outcome.
2. ETH 4000, BTC 105000: is a 'key point', not a 'buy-sell signal'.
- ETH 4000 USD: Currently, ETH is fluctuating between 3900-4000, and 4000 is like a 'small threshold'—if it falls below, it may explore further down (for example, to 3800); if it holds, it's easier to rise when the data is favorable.
- BTC 105000 USD: BTC is currently around 108000, and 105000 is the 'safety cushion'—if it falls below this number, many retail investors may panic and sell; if it holds, there will be confidence to push above 110000 when the data is good.
Here, I must stop newbies: never make the mistake of 'operating chaotically based on price levels'! For example, if BTC drops to 106000 and you rush to sell, you might end up selling at the lowest point; if it rises to 110000 and you rush to chase, you might get stuck at a high point. Data market fluctuations are particularly fast, and newbies should 'wait for the direction to be clear' instead of betting on a specific price level.
3. Practical tips for newbies: Do 3 things well, it's more reliable than guessing market trends.
1. Don’t be fully invested; keep some 'back-up'.
The total amount of ETH and BTC in hand should not exceed 30% of your total funds. The remaining money should either be kept aside—in case of a drop to buy more—or simply kept in cash, waiting for the data to come out before acting. Being fully invested is the easiest way to panic; once you panic, you might sell and buy chaotically, leading to easy losses on your principal.
2. Don’t stay up late staring at the market.
Unemployment benefits and non-farm payrolls are usually announced at 8:30 PM, and at that time, the market will 'jump around', with quick fluctuations. Newbies are prone to 'fidgeting': chasing when prices rise and cutting losses when they fall, which will likely result in losses. It's better to go to bed early, wake up the next day to see a clear direction, which will turn out to be more stable.
3. Look at 'trends' in the long term, don’t be misled by data.
Data is only a 'short-term catalyst'; what truly affects crypto prices is long-term logic—like whether ETH's RWA ecosystem (which means bringing real estate and bonds onto the blockchain) and BTC's ETF funds continue to flow in. These are the key factors determining prices over the next 1-2 years, so don’t change your long-term strategy just because of one data point.
In conclusion: Tonight's unemployment benefits are looking at the 'market sentiment warming up', while tomorrow's non-farm payrolls will look at the 'general direction of interest rate cuts'. Newbies don’t need to guess randomly or take a gamble; it's better to maintain a steady position and wait for a clear direction before acting—there have always been opportunities in the crypto circle, but what’s lacking are those who can protect their principal.
