Federal Reserve's September interest rate cut meeting, Bitcoin fluctuations
Historical references make it clear:
• 2019: Before the rate cut, Bitcoin increased 4 times, over-leveraged good news, and plummeted 38% in a single day when the news landed.
• 2024: The market thought it would repeat the crash, but after the rate cut, due to "Trump's endorsement + ETF capital inflow + corporate buybacks," it instead rose 30%.
In 2025, there are two possibilities:
1. If Bitcoin breaks 115000 before the rate cut: High probability of replicating the 2019 crash.
2. If it consolidates between 100000-105000: The good news has not been fully priced in, and it may rise to 115000 after the rate cut. Wait for a breakout above 105000 before increasing positions, and pay attention to Powell's comments on "whether to continue easing."
September fluctuations are small, and BTC is still on the rise in the long term. October CPI data, changes in corporate positions, and the situation in the Middle East will determine whether it can break 120000#非农就业数据来袭 #美联储降息预期 by the end of the year.