📊 The recently released economic data from the US
• ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (August): 54K < forecast 73K (weaker, labor slowing down).
• Initial unemployment claims: 237K > forecast (unemployment rising).
• Non-Farm Productivity (Q2): 3.3% > forecast 2.8% (positive, labor costs controlled).
• Unit labor costs (Q2): 1.0% < forecast 1.2% (cooling inflationary pressure).
• Trade balance (July): -78.3B < forecast -77.0B (deficit increasing).
• Continuing unemployment claims: 1.94M ≈ forecast (stable).
🔎 Market impact:
• Weak job growth (ADP much lower than last month: 54K compared to 106K) indicates a cooling labor market → reinforces expectations that the Fed may cut rates sooner.
• Strong labor productivity and declining labor costs → reduce inflationary pressure, supporting the trend towards monetary easing.
• However, the increasing trade deficit could be a downside for the USD.
💡 For Bitcoin & Crypto:
• The cooling employment and inflation data raise expectations that the Fed may pivot dovish → USD may weaken, yields may decline → BTC and altcoins benefit.