Lin Yiyi still talks about news, technical aspects, and sentiment:
First, let's talk about the news aspect:
1. Fed rate cut expectations rise: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in September, boosting global risk asset preferences, and our holdings in the Hang Seng Technology are direct beneficiaries.
2. The State Council meeting hears reports on policy situations: The meeting heard reports on large-scale equipment upgrades and the policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones, promoting the high-quality development of the sports industry. The areas for promoting consumption are gradually expanding; when will the food consumption sector be promoted?
3. Central Bank Operations and Reverse Repo Maturities: The central bank will have 20,770 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing next week, and on August 25, it will conduct 6,000 billion yuan MLF operations, which is routine.
4. Hedge funds accelerate their buying of A-shares: Goldman Sachs indicated that hedge funds have net bought Chinese stocks at the fastest rate in 7 weeks. This bull market is a result of the resonance of funds from various national teams, institutions, speculative funds, retail investors, and foreign capital.
5. Last week, chip stocks surged significantly, mainly due to Nvidia's suspension of H20 chips. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will launch a special action for computing power empowerment, benefiting the domestic replacement of AI chips. It is evident that domestic chip companies will benefit; we will see if there are more positive developments next week.
Next, let's discuss technical levels and volume analysis.
1. The support level of the Shanghai Composite Index is 3750 points (20-day moving average), and the resistance levels are 3850 points (2015 high) and 4000 points (technical target). This week's average daily trading volume is 25.875 billion yuan, with trading volume exceeding 20 trillion yuan for 8 consecutive days. Whether the volume can be maintained or even increased next week is a key indicator for the continuation of the market. Additionally, the financial expert mentioned to pay attention to the speed of new accounts, seeing if there can be 5 million new accounts in August.
2. Shenzhen Component Index: Support level is 12000 points, resistance level is 12200 points.
3. ChiNext Index: Support level is 2600 points (10-day moving average), resistance level is 2750 points, which is the high point for 2024. Let's see if it can create a new high, representing the determination and will of the main force.
Finally, let's talk about the market sentiment.
This week the market sentiment is high, and there is a consensus on the bull market at the 4000 points level. But beware of technical adjustment risks. The RSI index of the CSI 300 has reached 72, exceeding the warning line of 70, indicating a need for technical pullback. However, bull markets generally do not focus on these technical levels, but it is still necessary to pay attention.
In any case, the financial expert still says that we must be cautious of technical adjustment risks around the 4000 points level. However, historical data shows that the adjustment amplitude after the first touch of 4000 points in a bull market usually does not exceed 5%. This time we said to focus on the right side, fearing to miss out on selling, so it’s best to wait until around 4000 points and observe the adjustment and fluctuation amplitude at that time to devise a strategy.
In summary, the sentiment at this position is high, combined with expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, there should still be upward opportunities. However, this place is not suitable for large position increases, otherwise it could form an inverted pyramid, and the flexibility of funds is not that good, so it’s better to avoid blindly increasing positions. Just hold the sectors you have. Additionally, for missed opportunities in Hang Seng Technology, you can choose to participate in on-site ETFs, and enter at the MACD golden cross position during the trading day.
