As September approaches, the atmosphere in the cryptocurrency market seems particularly uneasy. Research institution K33 points out that, under the influence of factors such as renewed tariff pressures, several major economic data releases from the U.S. on the horizon, and the looming shadow of the 'September curse', Bitcoin is likely to struggle to shake off downward pressure.
K33 research director Vetle Lunde stated in a report that the 'macro catalysts' that have been overlooked by investors could break the 'numb and stable state' of the market approaching historical highs at any moment, igniting a wave of selling that pulls Bitcoin down from high levels, potentially even below the $100,000 mark.
'September Curse' Reappears: Focus on PPI and CPI Data
Statistics show that since 2011, September is the only month where Bitcoin has an average return rate that is negative, with an average decline of 4.6%. Vetle Lunde reminds investors that relying solely on the 'seasonal effect' is insufficient for predicting the market, but the new macro headwinds appear particularly fierce, exacerbating bearish sentiment.
Although the federal appeals court ruled that the comprehensive tariffs reinstated in early August were 'overstepping and illegal', these tariffs will still continue to be implemented during the case hearing period, at least until October 14.
Vetle Lunde writes: 'Soon, the impact of these tariffs will be reflected in the economic data released by the U.S.' He emphasizes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) set to be released in mid-September could be potential triggers for a decline in cryptocurrency prices.
Vetle Lunde reveals that he liquidated some of his personally held Bitcoin in August. Although Bitcoin prices have shown a slight correction, he remains cautious. He points out that the impacts of tariffs from the first quarter are still fresh: as macro concerns arise, investors will quickly hit the 'sell button', and with the stock market and Bitcoin nearing historical highs, any slight movement could trigger market repricing.
Leverage Overheating: Hidden Concerns in the Derivatives Market
Vetle Lunde reminds that, aside from tariffs, the leverage ratio in the cryptocurrency derivatives market has also raised alarms. The open interest of Bitcoin perpetual contracts has reached an annual high, while the funding rate fluctuates between negative and neutral. He warns that this makes Bitcoin 'extremely susceptible to bidirectional squeezes', and if economic data comes in worse than expected, the likelihood of a Bitcoin decline increases.
He believes that the support levels around $101,000 and $94,000 for Bitcoin may be worth watching for entry points.
Even so, Vetle Lunde emphasizes that the long-term investment value of Bitcoin has not wavered. Fiscal expansion policies, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cut outlook, and the potential inclusion of cryptocurrencies in the U.S. pension system will continue to be strong support in the future.
As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is reported at $111,180, approximately 10% down from the historical high of $124,128 set in mid-August.
Weak Performance of Bitcoin Spot ETFs
The report also points out that August of this year was the second worst month for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. since their listing, with a net outflow of 15,399 Bitcoins. Although ETF fund flows remain highly correlated with cryptocurrency prices, the frequent buying by corporations and 'whales' this year has made market supply and demand dynamics increasingly complex.
Additionally, Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) have seen an expanded premium relative to Ethereum after August's settlement, but trader participation has dropped to historical lows; meanwhile, leveraged ETFs (such as BITX) have also reduced their Bitcoin exposure to a new low in a year.
Vetle Lunde summarizes that the shifts in capital flows and position structures have laid the groundwork for the turbulent market in September, making it difficult for the cryptocurrency market to find breathing room this month.
"'Ignored Risks' May Trigger Selling Pressure! K33 Warns: Bitcoin May Fall Below $100,000 in September" This article was first published on (Blockcast).
