What Is the Nonfarm Payroll Report?
The Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report is a flagship economic release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), published monthly—typically on the first Friday of the month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. It tracks the net change in employment across most sectors of the U.S. economy—excluding agricultural workers, private household employees, proprietors, nonprofit staff, and active-duty military.
Because it covers roughly 80% of the workforce contributing to GDP, the NFP is among the most influential economic indicators. It comprises two primary data sources:
Establishment Survey (CES): Captures payroll changes, average hours worked, and earnings by surveying around 120,000 businesses.
Household Survey (CPS): Measures the unemployment rate, labor force participation, and demographic breakdowns.
Additional critical components include revisions to previous months, monthly earnings, industry-level trends, and work hours.
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Why It Matters: Economic Indicator & Market Mover
The NFP serves as a coincident economic indicator, reflecting the current state of employment and, by extension, economic health. Strong job gains typically signal robust economic momentum, while weak numbers hint at softness—often influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Markets respond instantly upon release. A report exceeding expectations typically boosts equities and the U.S. dollar, whereas a weaker outcome fuels expectations of monetary easing and can prompt risk-off sentiment.
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Recent Report: July 2025 (Released August 1, 2025)
Payroll Change: +73,000 jobs—anemic growth signaling a cooling labor market.
Unemployment Rate: Steady at **4.2%**.
Revisions: Significant downward corrections for May (-125,000) and June (-133,000), bringing a total downward revision of –258,000 jobs.
These revisions—one of the largest since April 2020—raised concerns about the actual health of the job market.
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What’s Ahead: August 2025 NFP Preview (Due September 5, 2025)
Expectations for the upcoming NFP release include: