Today's ETH (Ethereum) 1-hour K-line chart shows a rather tangled movement during the day. In the previous days, it was in a downward fluctuation, hitting a low of around 4260, but signs of stopping the decline began to appear this afternoon, with prices slowly trying to stabilize in the 4300 – 4370 range.

The major player's dumping is merely a performance; the real story often lies in the flow of chips.

Major Event Review

Yesterday (September 2nd, Eastern Time), the crypto world was ignited by a "heart-stopping" piece of news: Ethereum's spot ETF faced an unprecedented single-day net outflow of $135 million!

Among them, Fidelity's FETH saw nearly $99.23 million withdrawn in a single day, while Bitwise's ETHW also had an outflow of $24.22 million. The two leading ETFs experienced a 'stampede' of funds escaping, and market sentiment tightened instantly.

It's important to note that the total net asset value of the ETH spot ETF still stands at a staggering $27.986 billion, accounting for 5.38% of ETH's total market cap. ETFs have completely become a major weapon for Wall Street operators. The impact of large funds flowing in and out is like a raging tide.

Technical Analysis

From the 1-hour K-line chart, ETH fluctuated and consolidated in the 4300 – 4370 range during the day, showing some signs of stabilization just now:

Bollinger Bands: The price is near the middle band, slightly tilting upwards, showing a desire to test upward.

Moving Average System: Short-term moving averages are converging upwards, indicating that bullish strength is starting to emerge, but medium to long-term moving averages are still suppressing, suggesting that the rebound has not stabilized.

Trading Volume: There was a slight increase in volume in the evening, which is a positive signal. However, if the volume does not keep up in the future, the rebound may fizzle out halfway.

Market Sentiment Analysis

To put it simply, the $135 million outflow of ETF funds yesterday indeed made a loud noise, frightening retail investors who thought a mass exodus had begun. But don't forget, Wall Street's game has never been about 'truth,' but rather a 'show.' The movement of funds in and out is more about washing away floating chips, pushing market sentiment to a freezing point, allowing the major players to quietly accumulate. Today, during the day, ETH fluctuated and stabilized in the 4300 – 4370 range, which is a typical stage of 'panic → numbness → chip transfer.'

Operational Logic

The logic is clear: short-term bearishness is real selling pressure, but from a medium-term perspective, the washout action is actually preparing for the next round of rallies. Just like at the end of July, when $300 million flowed out of ETFs in one week, institutions quietly accumulated at the bottom, leading to a subsequent surge. Therefore, tonight, it's crucial to monitor the trading volume; if funds flow back into the US market, the rebound may evolve into a true breakout.

Short-term Trading Strategy

Support Level: 4300 (first line of defense); if it falls below this, be cautious of a pullback to 4260.

Resistance Level: 4450 – 4500 (breakthrough range); once it breaks out with volume, the short-term target can look towards 4550+.

Watershed: 4370. It can only be said that the rebound has continuity if it stabilizes above this level; otherwise, it will continue to be pulled back and forth.

Operational Suggestions:

For short-term players, you can gradually buy near 4300 – 4320, with a stop loss set below 4260.

For the aggressive, you can follow the trend and go long after breaking 4450, but you must monitor the trading volume; no volume means false moves.

Conservatives should wait for the market to show direction before following; do not bet on differences. During the period of market pullbacks, surviving is more important than making quick money.

Old Zhu's Viewpoint:

My personal judgment: Tonight, ETH is likely to first undergo a fluctuating washout before attempting to break upwards. The major player's dumping is just a turnover tactic; the real trend will wait for the funds to show their intentions. Don't forget, the biggest trap in the market is panic, while the biggest opportunities often lie hidden after panic. Keep an eye on the US market's volume, and you will see the truth.

Today's ETH is like a big fish trapped on a sandbank, struggling but not swimming far. Yet beneath the surface, there's a raging current. Will it be dragged back to the deep sea, or is it gathering strength to ride the waves? Tonight is the crucial jump! Everyone can leave comments in the comment section about the direction you are optimistic about.

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