One, the so-called 'whales buying the dip' actually don’t make much of a splash.

Last night at 7 PM, ETH started to drop from 4390 dollars, reaching a low of 4270. At this time, a message popped up on-chain: an early investor who had acquired a million ETH bought another 2000. Many saw this and thought, 'The big player is moving! Is it going to rise?' The price did bounce a bit back to 4300, but as soon as the US stock market opened, the sentiment worsened, and the price fell again.

Ironically, two economic data points came out afterward, both looking positive, and ETH briefly surged back to 4390, but it couldn't hold for even an hour before it dropped to 4250 in the early morning. What does this indicate? The market fundamentally distrusts the positives; there are always people running when the price rebounds. I feel this 'buy high and sell' mentality shows that most people are still not confident; a big buyer cannot change the situation just by purchasing a little.

Two, 4200 dollars is a critical position; if it breaks, it may accelerate the drop.

From my observation, 4200 is now a psychological line of defense. If it breaks, many long positions will be forcibly liquidated, totaling about 1.5 billion dollars, which could trigger a sharper decline. It’s also hard to break past 4400 right now; every rebound is being sold off.

From the data, although the ETH on exchanges has decreased (possibly indicating less selling pressure), the short-term price just can’t seem to rise. My view is that bulls currently have no strength; relying solely on news stimuli won’t lift the market, we really need to see if the overall environment can improve.

Three, September interest rate cut? Don’t expect too much

Many people are counting on a September interest rate cut to help the market. An interest rate cut is certainly a good thing, money becomes cheaper, and some may flow into the crypto circle. But the problem is, if the economic data is too poor, even if there is a rate cut, everyone might think, 'Is the economy really going to have problems?' This could make them even more hesitant to invest. So, it’s not a guaranteed positive, we need to see what the data says. There will be new data released tonight, I estimate the volatility won't be small.

Four, my advice: Don’t make random moves, watch more and act less.

If you like short trading, you might consider trying a light short position near 4300, targeting 4250-4200.

A more prudent approach is to wait until it truly breaks below 4270 before taking action.

As for the long term, don’t rush to buy the dip; you can buy in batches and wait for the trend to stabilize a bit before proceeding.

I used to think about buying the dip and selling at the top, but later realized that this mindset can easily backfire in such markets. The ones who really make money are those who are patient and don’t act impulsively. Don’t let short-term price fluctuations affect your emotions; be prepared and wait for clear opportunities to act.

What do you think? Do you believe this wave can hold 4200? Feel free to leave a message to discuss with me.