SOL repeatedly tests the $200 mark, the outcome of the bulls and bears depends on whether tonight can hold the dense area of 199 — this is not only a technical battle but also an emotional defense!

【Market Analysis】

Brothers, SOL's hourly chart is playing 'high-altitude tightrope walking' again! It opened at 201.9 at 8 AM this morning, peaked at 202.17, but the bears suddenly exerted force and smashed the price down to a low of 200.11, ultimately closing at 200.39 (a decrease of 0.75%). The most critical point is: the price is precisely stuck below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 200.46, with the upper band at 206.01 forming high pressure, and the lower band at 194.92 being the last line of defense.

The technical indicators show conflicting signals: the MACD's DIF (0.65) and DEA (0.48) are above the zero axis, but the histogram has shrunk to 0.35, combined with the trading volume MA5 (897,000) being lower than MA10 (1,000,000) — a typical 'volume-price divergence'! It's like a truck climbing a hill while the fuel tank is empty. There is only a $6 space left between the resistance level of 205 and the key level of 199, and a change in trend is imminent.

The macroeconomic situation is also lagging: the US ISM manufacturing PMI for August is only 48 (below the previous value of 49), and the monthly construction spending rate is -0.4%, continuing to shrink. These two data points suggest an economic slowdown, but the expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has instead been delayed, leading to a short-term tightening of dollar liquidity, which naturally puts pressure on risk assets like SOL.

【Personal Opinion and Case】

My judgment is clear: SOL is still considered weakly oscillating until it breaks through 205.

1. The key level of 199 is the chip area from the rise starting in August; falling below this will trigger panic selling;

2. The main force needs time to digest the trapped positions at 205; a direct attack requires trading volume to expand to over 1 million.

Looking back at the case on August 25, when SOL surged from 195 to 217: it relied on the collective outbreak of Solana ecological protocols (like Jito, JUP) combined with Bitcoin leading the market. Now we need to wait for similar catalysts — perhaps the upcoming US non-farm data to be announced on September 5, or Solana's on-chain TVL breaking through $4 billion again.

Short-term trading advice: decisively reduce positions if it falls below 199, and chase after the breakout above 205 if the volume increases. For mid to long-term players, focus on the support at the lower band of the Bollinger Band at 194.92; if it coincides with a warming macro sentiment, SOL still has a chance to challenge 220 by mid-September.

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