The market's expectations for the pace of #降息 are changing: from 'three times' at the beginning of the year to 'twice' now. The reason is simple: inflation is gradually rising, and the effects of tariffs will continue to transmit. Powell has also mentioned that this type of inflation does not reflect all at once, but is released in stages.

Therefore, the most likely path is: one rate cut in September and another in November, then a pause to observe, waiting for inflation to truly peak and fall back before returning to easing. The possibility of rate hikes is low.

Fiscal expansion 2.0 + industry-driven and limited easing will be the long-term foundation. In the short term (August and September), U.S. stocks may adjust by about 10%, and the cryptocurrency market will also find it hard to be immune. However, this adjustment is more about unwinding leverage to prepare for the next round of increases.

The key is after inflation peaks; if #美联储 resumes rate cuts and coordinates with yield curve control, that will be the true starting point of a major trend.

If inflation falls back faster than expected, the market will be smoother; if it drags on, the market may experience another wide fluctuation like last year.