View in two phases: Short-term beware of 'cutting the leeks', medium to long-term see real skills!
Phase 1: After interest rate cuts (1-4 weeks) — Beware of 'buy the rumor, sell the news.'
High probability of a short-term pullback: When a 25 basis point interest rate cut occurs in September (assuming it meets expectations), the positive effect may turn negative. Funds that made money from speculation will sell off, triggering a sharp drop of 5%-20% (refer to Bitcoin's 50% crash after the March 2020 rate cut).
Panic selling risk: If the market rises too wildly before the interest rate cut (e.g., Bitcoin breaks $130,000), leveraged long positions may liquidate en masse, amplifying the drop.
Key observation point: Is the Federal Reserve's speech 'dovish' (implying continued cuts) or 'hawkish' (warning of inflation)? Dovish can save the market, hawkish may lead to a collapse.
Phase 2: One month after the interest rate cut — Watch the two main engines
Engine 1: The Ethereum ETF is finally launching!
If the Ethereum ETF is approved by S-1 in September (high probability), tens of billions of dollars will flood in (refer to Bitcoin ETF's daily average inflow of $300 million).
Direct impact: ETH may lead the rise, driving the explosion of staking (Lido), layer two networks (Arbitrum), and other ecosystems.
Engine 2: Global money has become cheaper
After the interest rate cut, borrowing costs will decrease, and more hot money will flow into high-risk assets.
Historical pattern: In the past three rounds of Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycles, Bitcoin averaged a rise of over 150%.
Three possible scenarios
Best-case scenario (40% probability): September interest rate cut + ETH ETF listing + continued cooling of inflation → Dual-core drive for funds, acceleration of the bull market after a pullback, Bitcoin surges to $150,000.
Volatile scenario (50% probability): Interest rates are cut but economic data is poor (e.g., skyrocketing unemployment rates), causing market fears of recession → The cryptocurrency market jumps around with the stock market, mainstream coins stagnate, and altcoins bleed heavily.
Worst-case scenario (10% probability): Inflation suddenly rebounds (e.g., oil prices soar), and the Federal Reserve reverses course and 'pauses rate cuts' → Risk assets collapse across the board, leading to a significant downturn in the cryptocurrency market.
Retail survival guide
In the short term, don't chase highs: If there’s a surge before the rate cut, definitely reduce positions for risk management after the cut.
Keep a close eye on ETH ETF: Immediately increase positions in ETH and ecosystem coins (like SSV, OP), and retreat decisively if it fails.
Beware of black swans: Pay close attention to the CPI data for September announced in October (whether inflation resurfaces after the rate cut).
Bottom-fishing strategy: If the interest rate cut triggers a crash, you can buy Bitcoin and Ethereum in batches — during the era of liquidity, leading coins are never absent.
Ultimate Tip: The cryptocurrency bull market relies on 'water' (liquidity), and the global water gate just opened after September. Remember not to panic when it drops and not to go crazy when it rises; the best may be yet to come!
I am Peige, with eight years of deep experience in the cryptocurrency space. Short-term trading reveals the truth, while medium to long-term strategies are methodical. Accurately capture the optimal trading opportunities and empower your investment decisions with first-hand information. Choose the right direction and find the right rhythm; here you will find the professional perspective you need.
