Weekly Market Analysis of the Crypto World (09.01)

Summary:

1. The annual benchmark revision of non-farm payrolls on September 9 and the birth-death model

2. The biggest macro risk remains stagflation rather than employment

3. Will the downturn in U.S. stocks in September and the reversal of fundamentals lead to a drop in U.S. stocks this September?

4. U.S. Treasuries and natural gas.

5. This week is quite critical

6. Technical indicators no longer provide reasons to go long, but the market trends in late August and September 2021 still have a considerable degree of overlap.

7. Compared to September 2021, the late August of this year has been worse due to breaking through a series of key support levels.

8. From a fundamental perspective, if a bull market concludes like this, many key signals will be overturned.

Operations:

1. Maintain the long position of $BTC , the long position will at least last until after the interest rate cut on September 18, taking profit on 2/3 at 136,000. The timing of selling the remaining position and spot will be discussed later.

2. Maintain the long position of $ETH , the long position will at least last until after the interest rate cut on September 18, taking profit when the exchange rate reaches 0.05 (or at 6100 is also acceptable).

3. Maintain the long position of $SOL , the long position will at least last until after the interest rate cut on September 18, taking profit on 2/3 at 218. Close the remaining position and sell the spot when the exchange rate reaches 0.002.

We still assume there is one last main upward wave.

History will not repeat itself completely; although in the last bull market, before the final main upward wave started, the market encountered repeated resistance and fell at the 4H level EMA60, this bull market may not have as much time left. This week, encountering the 4H level EMA60, there is also a probability of breakthrough, but still pay attention to risks in the short term.

Particularly mentioning SOL, because if there is one last main upward wave, the position at 218 will definitely break through. However, I will still take profit on 2/3 at 218 as planned; this is a matter of habit, and once a target is set, it should not be changed frequently.

So if there is no last main upward wave, the value of this lesson is still significant; overall, it should not be a loss. This means that in the future crypto world, cycles and fundamentals will be less than technical aspects, and trading should only be based on technical aspects thereafter. Lastly, as emphasized multiple times before, I reiterate today, we are currently at the end of a bull market, so control leverage and position well, and avoid investing too much capital.