Whenever the price tentatively tests downward, this point acts like an invisible magnet, always able to draw out tens of millions in buy orders. At 4 AM yesterday, a sell order of $30 million suddenly crashed down, causing the price to drop to $108,100, but within half a minute, it was bought back to $108,500, with the 'market protection traces' on the order book as heavy as if written on the face.
Interestingly, the trading volume has shrunk to 55% of last week's average, but on-chain data is quietly 'speaking'. The transfer frequency of several whale addresses holding over 100,000 Bitcoins has decreased by 70% in the past couple of days, while those with 100-1,000 coins, the 'medium accounts', have seen their recharge volume increase by 30% compared to usual. This scene resembles the quiet before a market stall closes, with vendors calculating their accounts, just waiting for a signal to emerge and immediately overturn the table to call out prices.
Veteran traders in contracts are sharing a chart: Over the past three years, when Bitcoin has stayed above $100,000 for more than 48 hours with trading volume reducing to an average of below 60% per day, there is an 83% probability of an 8% or more fluctuation in the following 72 hours. It's like a pressure cooker simmering meat; when the pressure is not reached, everything is calm, but once the safety valve starts to sound, steam can blow the lid off. The current situation is that both bulls and bears are betting on who will give in first — the bears have placed nearly $500 million in sell orders at $112,000, hoping to force the bulls to surrender; the bulls regard $108,000 as their last line of defense, having added $200 million in buy orders just today.
A friend who does quantitative trading showed me a set of data: In the past couple of days, retail investors trading back and forth between $108,000 and $110,000 have an average loss rate 40% higher than usual. This is because the slippage during sideways trading is particularly severe; you think you can execute at $109,000, but by the time it actually executes, it might have risen to $109,500, and the extra cost feels like being quietly cut like leeks. His strategy is to 'wait for the gunshot' — either wait for $108,000 to be broken with the trading volume increasing to more than 1.2 times the daily average, or wait for $112,000 to hold steady with three consecutive hourly lines closing above it, otherwise, he won't take action.
Don't think that the current calm is a signal that the market has ended. Look at Grayscale's holdings changes; in the past three days, they have increased their Bitcoin trust by 8,000 coins, with an average cost around $108,500. These institutional funds are never here just to earn grocery money; they are waiting for an opportunity that can leverage billions in funds.
If you have cash on hand, you might set $107,500 as an 'alarm line' — if this position is effectively broken (with two consecutive hourly lines closing below it), the support at $108,000 may become a 'trap for bulls'; those without positions shouldn't rush to enter either, as the first wave of the market during a breakout from a sideways pattern is often the strongest; even if you chase up $5,000, it's better than being swept in and out during the fluctuations.
This game of chess has reached the mid-game, quiet enough to hear the sound of pieces being placed. But if you focus on the changes in trading volume, you'll notice that undercurrents have already begun to surge — when that suddenly amplified bullish or bearish line appears, the current few thousand dollars of fluctuation is merely an appetizer for the larger market.
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