What is the estimated position of the top for this bull market in 2024-2025, and when will it peak?
Hmm, it seems like I haven't heard anyone talk about Bitcoin (BTC) for about three or four years. In the blink of an eye, it's already the four-year halving bull market season. This round is clearly much quieter in the domestic market. Since May 19, 2021, when the mainland banned the planting of Bitcoin, the domestic market has lost its last chip that could influence Bitcoin's market. This may also be a good thing; Bitcoin will resemble the long bull and short bear patterns of US stocks rather than the violent rise and fall of A-shares (considering the explosive rise and fall during the first and second halvings dominated by the mainland, as well as the nearly despairing three-year long bear market from early 2014 to the end of 2016). The last significant impact from the classical crypto circle on Bitcoin should have been during the BCH hard fork power struggle in November 2018. After that, Bitmain, which was once afraid of cold, experienced the split of the Wu and Zhao families. In 2019, when Li Xiaolai exposed the ICO recording of cutting leeks, the big shots from the classical crypto circle who are still active in the modern crypto circle are only CZ and Sun. Moreover, since CZ was also cut by the US last year, now only Sun can still show up at each wave of hotspots.
Every four years, Bitcoin's halving brings a wave of bull market, and the heat of the bull market attracts a wave of new retail investors. When the number of retail investors gradually accumulates, far away in the US, the farmer Baoyier suddenly cannot help but resurrect once again and starts promoting his three-piece set hoarded from the classical crypto circle on X, the bull market is about to announce its end. Now, farmers who have been in the circle for a long time are either financially retired and traveling the world, or they have shifted to overseas X and Telegram; the Bitcoin farming fields of the simplified Chinese internet are almost deserted, with only a few KOLs promoting contracts, altcoins, and Ponzi schemes left, with hardly any normal players discussing and analyzing new changes and trends in the crypto circle seriously. Therefore, regarding the trend and views of this round of bull market, most of what is seen online are rough and hasty assumptions, always thinking the market will last until the end of 2025, but they do not realize that the early 2024 ETF has already triggered an early start for the market, leading to a displacement of the initial timing, and the dynamics of the market could have already changed.
Now, if we track and observe the signs of this bull market peaking from four or five different dimensions, as scientifically, objectively, and comprehensively as possible, I wonder if we can accurately escape the top in this round of the bull market? I'm also curious about this; these days, I decided to play the role of a god for the new investors and make this prediction, which is also a small favor to the great benefactor Satoshi Nakamoto (after all, I have made some pocket money in the crypto circle).
So let's look at the various indicators to see where the peak of this bull market might be and when it is expected to end.
One: 9 God Index. The 9 God Index rose to fame during the transition from the classical crypto circle to the modern crypto circle in those three to four years (2018-2021), being memorized by many Bitcoin farmers for its precise investment line and bottom line. However, those who only play altcoins may not think highly of the 9 God Coin Holding Guide and the 9 God Index, so its position among ordinary investors may not be fully realized. However, I want to say that from the situation of the bear market in 2022-2023, the 9 God Index has already deviated significantly. The original investment line of 1.2 has been set too high, and the original bottom line of 0.45 is roughly usable for investment timing (it’s not entirely called investment, let's say it's batch building); while the real bottom line has slid down to 0.3 (the 9 God Index broke below 0.3 twice when Bitcoin was at 19K in June 2022 and 16K in November). In this round, the maximum of the secondary bull market's 9 God Index was only about 1.9 in March 2024 (in comparison, the peak 9 God Index in the bull market of 2017 was 26; in the 2021 bull market, the peak 9 God Index was 9).
Therefore, for this bull market peak, I expect the 9 God Index may struggle to break through 3, estimating it will peak around 2.5! Friends who plan to escape the top when the 9 God Index reaches 3+ or 5+ should be cautious; seeking a sword in the boat often just deceives oneself, while others may have already slipped away when they see the situation is not good!
Two: Altcoin Prosperity Index. This index breaking 75 and sustaining indicates that the last phase of the bull market's altcoin season has arrived, with only 2-3 months left until the bull market ends. The last round was on March 23, 2021, when it broke 75, and then the bull market was forcefully interrupted by a ban on May 19, with the altcoin season lasting less than 2 months. Excluding policy interference, if we average the two peaks in November, the altcoin season lasted a little over 3 months. In this round of the bull market, on December 2, the altcoin index exceeded 75 (whether it can sustain is yet to be seen), and normally, the ball is expected to last another 2-3 months.
Three: Rainbow Chart. The accuracy of the rainbow chart is not enough; being off by one color (selling too early or too late) in a bull market could result in a difference of 1-2 times in profit. Therefore, it should not be the main reference point but can be a stage reference (qualitative but not quantitative). From the color blocks of the rainbow chart, there is still at least a gap of 2 blocks to the peak in this round. According to the principle that each round of bull market time displacement leads to decreasing growth, if this round is one block lower than the last, then the peak would be around 220K USD; if it's two blocks lower, then around 160K.
Four: Mid-to-long term moving average crossover chart: When the 111-day moving average crosses above 350-day * 2, it indicates that Bitcoin's short-term rise is significantly overextended and the bull market is about to end! Currently, this indicator predicts a peak price of about 135K (there is still some time until the two lines cross, and the duration is hard to quantify on the chart).
Five: Based on my own experience and the related data above, I predict that the top for Bitcoin in this bull market has a 70% probability of being between 135K-165K, a 20% probability of being above 165K, and a 10% probability of being below 135K; the time frame is very likely between February and April 2025. If a peak indicator clearly shows a peak, or if the values and times at the top are adjusted, I will update them in subsequent articles.
I will update the relevant data and progress of the predicted peak model in phases before the end of this bull market. However, regardless of how the market ultimately moves, it is not something that can be guessed, so we must have a plan for gradually reducing positions, taking profits, and trying to preserve 70-90% of the substantial profits at the peak range, ensuring we do not sell too early or, definitely, too late.
In short, operations during the bull market are better early than late (but don’t think about making waves to escape normal corrections in the meantime); once you’ve sold part of it, don’t re-enter, and when your expectations and peak indicators are met, be sure to clear your positions heavily, and never be greedy to hold on!
Second update (2024.12.11): Currently undergoing a small correction in the final phase of the bull market, Bitcoin has dropped six or seven points while altcoins generally dropped twenty to thirty points; such corrections typically happen 3-4 times in the main upward wave of the late bull market, and according to past habits and the rhythm of the crypto market, it will likely complete within 1-2 weeks; this adjustment has been brewing since the new high on December 5, and it is estimated to take 3-7 more days to finish. When prices rise significantly, they often drop sharply; this is common. The escape-top indicators have not shown substantial changes and are continuously being updated.
Early morning (2024.12.16): It seems that Bitcoin's small adjustment has ended and has stabilized at the 100K level. Let's see if this wave can attack the top center of 125K. Today, I symbolically sold a small portion of Bitcoin at 105K. It’s not that I feel the market has peaked, but I want to remind myself that the next step is to escape the top, selling but not buying (I need to overcome my psychological obsession with holding during a bull market), and also not to think about holding onto everything and waiting to sell at the highest point. Gradually clearing positions, retreating while fighting.
Third update (2025.1.10): Although I believe this round of bull market has entered the later stage and is likely to end in Q1 of 2025 (most likely not dragging on to May), the peak of altcoins at most will only see a 2-3 times increase. However, during this month of corrective consolidation, many people not only lost all floating profits but a large portion of them lost confidence as they continued to buy the dip during three probing bottoms at 9.2K, leading many to believe the bull market has already ended, a view I do not agree with. If a four-year bull market ends so hastily, what’s the difference from the A-shares? In short, knowing and acting as one, do operations you recognize and are confident in; act without fear or regret. Now (or earlier) reducing positions can avoid some pain during corrections, but when the market rises again, you must also bear some risk of missing out (there's no such thing as someone who perfectly rides the waves). Holding quality coins at the bottom price is much better than feeling regret later when the market rises and then chasing in at mid-high levels.
Although I have mentioned that many escape-top indicators have been deformed, it doesn’t mean they are devoid of reference value (data can be adjusted based on the time displacement of multiple bull markets). Someone on X has compiled a list of escape-top indicators; currently, none of the 30 indicators are in place (see the first image below). I estimate that when 30% of this list is in place, the bull market will probably be coming to an end; waiting for all indicators to be in place is unrealistic. Now we should hold steady. When the late-stage bull market truly arrives, we must stay clear-headed, retreating as we trade and not getting too attached.
Figure two is a parameter calculated by weighting and mixing seven to eight core escape-top indicators, clearly showing that the market is in the later stage (but not yet at the peak). In short, the point is: independent judgment of the market and trading plans is the starting point for all investment profits.
A single screen capture can only see the first 10 indicators.
We are already in the later stages, and the peak is not far away.
Late night (2025.2.11)
After the explosive drop and fluctuations in early February, Bitcoin still has a wave of rebound ahead (lasting until late February?), but the trend after the rebound will have significant divergence. Currently, the weekly line has slightly crossed down, and after the rebound, it will either repair the crossing and experience a significant rise to above 120K (Direction A); or the weekly line will be pulled down for a super big correction to 70-80K (Direction B). I personally lean towards a 60% probability for A and 40% for B; the specifics will be clearer when the trend emerges in late February to early March.
Previously, in mid-December, I felt that the market had reached a stage high point and that the end of the bull market was not far off. Now, reviewing the predictions at that time, it's both right and wrong. It’s right for altcoins, but wrong for Bitcoin. The vast majority of people (including myself) inevitably rely on empiricism and subjectivism to judge matters, and personal expectations often mix in. Therefore, the decision to rotate 30% of my position into altcoins was a mistake (I will look for opportunities to rotate back into Bitcoin during the subsequent rebound). As for Bitcoin, even if it directly moves towards a B direction for a weekly-level correction next, it is still highly probable that there will be new highs by mid-year or year-end (109K is definitely not the peak for this round of Bitcoin). Even so, I must begin to gradually take profits; there’s no need to hold everything to death in the late stages of the bull market. My previous profit-taking actions were not strong enough either, as I was still 20% away from my target and thought I could take a bite through the late-season of altcoins, not expecting to get bitten. In the late stages of the bull market, avoid greed and ambition.
Next, let's talk about this round's altcoin season.
1. This round has experienced an altcoin season (early 2024 and mid-December), and there will still be this level of altcoin season ahead, but it will not be the typical altcoin season seen in previous bull markets. This means that the altcoin season in this round will be a small-range rebound of 2-3 times after altcoins wash down to new lows, occurring when Bitcoin stagnates at a new high and consolidates. Moreover, it is limited to high-quality altcoins that either have certain consensus, have application landing data active, or involve governance and dividends. Particularly high-quality altcoins may be stronger, possibly achieving 3-5 times or even 10 times, but it is difficult to filter and hold onto their high volatility, which is also not conducive to defending against dips at the end of the bull market. Regardless, ETH, as the leader among altcoins, has passed the ETF, and there will ultimately be a wave of market (5-6K); there’s no need to panic sell now. For other altcoins, I suggest only flipping to Bitcoin at high points each time.
2. Previously, the altcoin prosperity index of 75 was the starting point of the altcoin season, but from this round onwards, 75 may be the top of the altcoin season. When the index reaches 75, the altcoin season will tend to end. Currently, there are tens of millions to billions of altcoins, with thousands of new coins appearing on-chain every day. Although they are all MEME coins that will eventually go to zero, this gambling method is relatively simple, fair, and efficient. New young retail investors are all flocking to on-chain and are not playing with old secondary coins; old investors can only take over on CEX, and new coins basically explode and plummet as soon as they are listed. The top 100 coins may rebound during the altcoin season, but those behind shouldn't think about mining gold from the sand. Young people who can stay up late, have strong internet skills, and are sensitive to new information and trends can try playing on-chain (though it's hard for Zhihu users to satisfy these characteristics).
3. In the future, the crypto market will be no different from the stock market, with 1% of projects accounting for 90% of the market value and growth. At the end of the bull market, don't be too ambitious; altcoins shouldn't be too ambitious. In short, take the profits when the opportunity arises, even if it deviates from your expectations; it’s best to preserve the profits you have. Retail investors should not expect to earn 10 times or more in the crypto market anymore; achieving 3-5 times in each round would be good. A 3-5 times return from the end of a bear market to mid-bull market over two years is the most stable and reliable.
Lastly, let me talk about the top escape.
Currently, various top model indices for Bitcoin have indeed not reached an absolute peak, but escaping the top means retreating while trading. As long as it is confirmed to be the late stage of a bull market, selling in batches is fine; no one can sell everything at the highest point. Those who think that the crypto market has become like the stock market, with large funds and institutions only recognizing Bitcoin, believing that Bitcoin has started a long-term bull market (and thus continuously leveraging Bitcoin) should also be cautious. The stock market and Bitcoin are bound to have a bear market-level crash in 2025-2026, and the 30% single-day drop of ETH on February 3rd will also be unavoidable for Bitcoin at that time (for example, dropping from 110K to 80K), due to the leverage of the secondary market and human nature. Bitcoin simply does not have the risk of going to zero, but it has good defensive and anti-dip characteristics.
Those who are waiting for escape-top parameters to be in place before clearing positions for profit are likely to fail to escape the top again in this round. In short, independent judgment of the market and trading plans is the starting point for all investment profits. Following your own plans often leads to good outcomes, while following market sentiment and KOL slogans can lead to losses in the haze of vague expectations and the gradual boiling of frogs.
Late night (2025.3.5)
(I personally believe the main bull market is still ongoing) but it is evident that Bitcoin has entered a weekly-level adjustment, or in other words, the adjustment has progressed halfway. Since it is a weekly-level adjustment, a quick bottom reversal and new highs are basically impossible. If it can stabilize at 95K in March, I think that would be quite good.
I have gradually reduced my position to half (the remaining position is largely Ethereum that I exchanged for some time ago, so I can only pretend to be dead for now). Based on the time and depth of this adjustment, it is much more severe than initially expected. Therefore, if the bull market continues, it probably won't end in April but may extend to May-June (though I don't think it will last until the end of the year to form a double top).
Of course, specifics still need to be observed as we go along. In short, gradually reducing positions in the late stages of the bull market, taking profits when they are good, and not being ambitious is key; once positions are out, try not to re-enter.
This round of bull market is controlled by Wall Street. They colluded with Trump’s big mouth to make crazy ambushes, create momentum, rush out, and cut randomly. Retail investors are suffering greatly. The Chinese have lost all voice in the crypto space. I suggest everyone to lower their expectations for the crypto space in the future and operate conservatively (only holding Bitcoin long-term), as preserving capital is crucial.
It's possible that in the next two or three months, those institutions may turn to operate Ethereum as the market's main line (after all, its potential is large enough), causing the retail investors who recently exchanged various altcoins for Bitcoin to protect their capital to get cut again.
The extreme worst-case scenario is if the US stock market further crashes in the next couple of months, causing Bitcoin to plummet with a monthly death crossover, leaving only a little rebound escape opportunity for the first half of the year.
Late night (2025.7.22)
Recently, under the leadership of ETH, a new wave of market has indeed started. ETH has been promoted by various institutions and US-listed companies as a digital gold reserve. Since the market has started, I personally feel that ETH is likely to reach 5K this year, with a high probability of peaking between 5-6K. The time frame is around August-September.
I am currently holding a 1x short hedge and plan to gradually clear my positions in August-September. The drop in interest rates around September may be the last shudder of this bull market.
I will update my views on the crypto market in this post every 3 months to half a year. The records of the previous timeline will also be kept, serving as a record for myself of integrating knowledge and action.
