The core PCE in the US has reached a six-month high of 2.9%. Meanwhile, the price of gold has been quietly rising, breaking the threshold of 3,500 USD per ounce today, and the White House has even canceled the tax rate on small packages under 800 USD.
Thus, inflation in the US is quietly rising, and the entire job market faces severe pressure, but it has no choice but to possibly cut interest rates in September, leading to fluctuations in global assets today.
After the US stock market opened, there was a comprehensive decline, except for China's financial index, which remains very strong. You can see an increase of over 1%, and Alibaba has also announced its quarterly report, with total revenue exceeding 230 billion, and net profit between 30 billion to 40 billion.
However, if we break it down, we can see that the core of Alibaba Cloud is still very optimistic, maintaining double-digit growth. Just like Nvidia, many people joke that it is the American version of the Cambrian explosion, but we have also observed that its implicit volatility has been quietly decreasing as reported in the quarterly report from a couple of days ago, making further expansion of expectations and growth difficult.
Today, Nvidia's decline also reached over 3%, evaporating more than 100 billion in market value. Overall, we see that today's A-share market transaction volume still maintains above 2.8 trillion, with around 2,000 stocks rising throughout the day.
Overall, the market has been focused on solid-state batteries or other areas with capital inflow, but regardless, the new stock king has seen a pullback of over 5%. Therefore, next week, there might be a low opening influenced by the United States.
Generally, we see influences from three aspects: stocks, bonds, and currencies. If the stock market performs particularly well, there may be fluctuations in the bond and currency markets because it is impossible for all three aspects to rise simultaneously. However, the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan has reached 7.13, and the US dollar index has remained around 98, but the yuan is quietly appreciating.
We see that neighboring countries, such as South Korea, have recently changed presidents, but their expansionary fiscal policy may lead to record bond issuance in Korea next year, with the amount exceeding 230 trillion won. Converted to USD, this should be between 160 billion and 170 billion.
In the entire market, South Korea is also keen to invest in AI or chip research and development, while Japan is facing severe inflation, which remains high, so the Japanese yen's interest rate hike may face further realization.
Additionally, inflation in the Eurozone and Germany is quietly surpassing the European average, so the impact of these tariffs is gradually eroding into all our lives.
Some financial bloggers often mention the hollowing out of the American economy and its excessive reliance on finance, but we must understand that when a manufacturing country upgrades further, such as moving from Industry 3.0 to Industry 4.0, it ultimately tends to lean towards finance and services. This is because many low-cost processing tasks and pollution are passed on to developing countries.
However, we are now at a peak stage of a developing country, and many European countries say that China is already a developed country. However, our overall market and the income of ordinary residents are still at a developing stage, as the per capita GDP disposable income is only over 10,000 USD.
We have seen that the market index has been rising, but most retail investors have not made much profit unless they hit the right trends. For instance, in the past two weeks, there have been consecutive transactions exceeding 2 trillion, with the trend being in the Science and Technology Innovation 50, which rose over 8% last Friday and over 7% this Thursday.
Technology is a driving force that will lead China to further increase, while the United States tends to lean towards this so-called finance. China, on the other hand, is learning from others' lessons and is focused on technology, which will definitely feed back into our economy in the future.
Some production lines may have shifted to Southeast Asia due to lower processing costs, but if their logistics and labor can be replaced by robots in the future, it may not be necessary for production lines to flow out at all.
We have also seen recent friction regarding tariffs between India and the United States. Now, India and China could deepen their trade relations, which is something everyone should pay attention to.