Friends, I am Blockchain Gold. In response to the global foreign exchange news released this morning, I will provide a quick correction and streamlined summary as a senior analyst. The original text is generally accurate, but some data needs to be updated to better reflect market reality:


Details are as follows

Federal Reserve's Williams states that policy remains tight, but 'inflation is gradually receding' should be adjusted to 'the pace of inflation decrease is volatile', which better aligns with his recent cautious statements.

Brazil's finance minister's statement is accurate, but can be simplified to: US dollar hegemony is difficult to shake in the short term, but weaponization will accelerate its decline.

Japan's tariff negotiation representative cancels visit to the US—this is true, but it should be supplemented: the Japanese side also hints at possible countermeasures.

Bank of Japan's Nakagawa Sumiko accurately 'reiterates the stance on interest rate hikes', but 'tariff impacts are a concern' should be changed to 'fluctuations in tariffs and government bond markets are applying dual pressure'.

The demand for Japan's two-year government bond auction did indeed reach a new low since 2009, but it should be emphasized: this is the third consecutive month of deteriorating demand.

Japan's Ministry of Finance seeks opinions on reducing ultra-long-term government bond issuance—this is true, but the motivation is to alleviate upward pressure on interest rates.

Russian Finance Minister states that the economy will grow by 1.5% in 2025—this should be corrected to 'optimistic expectation of 1.5%, but the market generally estimates only 0.8%-1.2%'.

The Slovak central bank governor's appeal in a bribery case: this is accurate, but it is a marginal event that can be appropriately simplified.

The Bank of Korea maintains the interest rate at 2.5%—this is accurate.

The Bank of Korea warns of exchange rate volatility risks—should be supplemented with 'mainly targeting the rapid depreciation trend of the Korean won against the US dollar'.

The Bank of Korea governor defends foreign exchange intervention—this is true, but the effectiveness is in doubt, as the won rebounded and then weakened again.

My viewpoint

Subtle deviations in policy statements often lead to misleading expectations. For example, the simultaneous occurrence of weak demand for Japanese government bonds and statements on interest rate hikes releases a message of confusion rather than a firm tightening, and such contradictions are often precursors to a turning point.

Just like last year when the Eurozone hinted at interest rate hikes while secretly increasing bond purchases, resulting in the euro rising first and then collapsing—details are the devil.


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#外汇勘误 #政策预期 #宏观分析