政策预期

March 7, 2025: Events in the Crypto World

On March 7, the Trump administration hosted a closed-door summit on the cryptocurrency industry to discuss regulatory frameworks, cross-border enforcement, and the integration of AI with cryptocurrencies. The SEC insists on applying the “Howey Test” principle to determine token characteristics, while companies like Coinbase advocate for flexible classification based on functionality.

Trump signed the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Plan, where the U.S. government included approximately 200,000 Bitcoins seized through criminal/civil forfeiture into its strategic reserves, clearly stating that they are “for long-term value storage only” and will not be sold off. This move aims to optimize the U.S. dollar credit system, but market concerns about a lack of incremental funding support led to a 4% drop in Bitcoin's price to $84,807 on that day.

Institutional Trend: The Bitcoin ETF scale of asset management giants like BlackRock may exceed $500 billion, while retail investors gradually shift towards compliant DeFi products (such as tokenized government bond funds).

AI agents (like TruthGPT) could become autonomous blockchain nodes or large investors in the crypto market, enhancing the reliability of decentralized prediction markets (like PolyMarket).

The market capitalization of stablecoins is expected to approach $3 trillion, with companies (such as Visa and Stripe) accelerating the integration of stablecoin payments, leading to a surge in cross-border B2B transaction volumes.

The tokenization scale of RWA (Real World Assets) increased from $8.4 billion to $13.5 billion, expanding coverage to real estate, private credit, and more, with traditional institutions (like BlackRock) actively participating.

Bitwise launched a mixed ETP product of Bitcoin and gold, attracting diversified investment demand.

Dr. Ni's Web3 mainnet migration reached 7.046 billion tokens, with 5.319 billion locked and 1.726 billion in circulation.

Dr. Ni's digital token entered the CMC market cap at 11th place with a circulation rate of 7% (approximately 1.6 billion tokens), becoming the token with the lowest circulation rate among the top 100 projects.

South Korea: Accelerating the drafting of the second phase of the cryptocurrency legislation, strengthening regulation on the behavior of market participants.

Japan: Planning to classify crypto assets into a new category and reduce taxes to 20%, exploring loose policies.

Summary: March 7 marks a critical turning point for global crypto policies and the Web3 ecosystem: U.S. policy trends dominate market sentiment, Dr. Ni's Web3 continues to break barriers through compliance and technological innovation, while adjustments in Asian regulatory frameworks indicate a deepening of regional competitive dynamics. The next two weeks should focus on the progress of ecosystem implementation and disclosure of policy details.

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Countdown to the Cryptocurrency Summit

Trump chose to sign an executive order before the White House cryptocurrency summit, essentially defining the core agenda of the meeting in advance to prevent it from being dominated by industry interest groups. By presenting the 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' as an established fact, Trump demonstrated policy execution capability while shifting the summit focus from 'industry demands' to 'government planning', weakening the agenda-setting ability of attending companies like Coinbase and MicroStrategy.

Such 'pre-meeting raids' are common tactics in political maneuvering. The core of Trump's signed executive order is to allocate approximately 200,000 bitcoins (worth about $17 billion) confiscated by the U.S. government through judicial means into the strategic reserve, explicitly stating 'no proactive accumulation or sale'.

This policy is more of a political symbol than a practical one. First, by elevating bitcoin to the status of a 'quasi-sovereign asset', it caters to cryptocurrency voters (about 20% of U.S. voters hold crypto assets), solidifying his image as the 'crypto president'.

Secondly, it does not involve fiscal appropriations to purchase new coins (only confiscated assets), thus avoiding Congressional budget disputes while laying the groundwork for a subsequent narrative of 'dual reserves of USD and Bitcoin'.

The market interprets this as a 'zero-sum game'—with no new fiat currency purchase demand, it instead freezes 200,000 bitcoins in circulation (about 1% of the total), leading to a contraction in short-term liquidity. The price of bitcoin plummeted by 5% to $85,000 following the announcement.

Bitcoin is defined as 'digital gold', but its role on the national balance sheet (such as whether it counts as foreign exchange reserves or alternative assets) is not clearly defined, lacking direct stimulation for incremental market funds.

The market previously anticipated that the U.S. government might increase its holdings of bitcoin through purchases or tax incentives, but after the policy was implemented, speculative funds withdrew, resulting in a single-day drop of over 5% in bitcoin, falling below the critical support level of $85,000.

Investors should be wary of such 'policy expectation gaps': the asymmetry between political statements and substantive actions may become a major driver of future market volatility.

Despite short-term market pressure, the long-term impact of the executive order should not be overlooked. The summit has entered its countdown phase, awaiting the bloom.