Brothers who follow BTC, Uncle Feng will explain the current detailed analysis strategy to everyone.

From the market perspective, Bitcoin has recently pulled back to around the key support level of $112,000 after peaking. The 2-hour chart shows a bullish pattern, but the daily MACD bearish pressure has not completely dissipated, and the trading volume has significantly decreased, forming a divergence between price and volume. This indicates that short-term upward momentum is insufficient, and the price may oscillate in the range of $112,000 to $118,000. If it breaks below $112,000, stronger support may be around $110,000, while resistance above should focus on the breakout situation at $115,000.

2. Potential Pressure from the Macroeconomic Environment

The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged at the September FOMC meeting has risen to 36%, but uncertainty remains regarding inflation data. If subsequent data strengthens interest rate hike expectations, it may trigger a sell-off of risk assets. Historical data shows that Bitcoin is highly sensitive to interest rate changes; for every 1 basis point fluctuation in the two-year Treasury yield, BTC price often changes by 0.25% in sync. Additionally, the U.S. government has explicitly stated that it will not purchase Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, which somewhat undermines market confidence.

3. Signals of Market Structure Divergence

Although institutional long-term positioning continues — Bitcoin's volatility has dropped to 38%, approaching that of traditional blue-chip stocks, some speculative funds have shifted towards Ethereum and other more volatile assets, which may lead to a decrease in BTC's short-term liquidity.

Uncle Feng looks to short BTC around $113,000−$113,500, with a target of around $112,000−$111,000.

However, the crypto market changes rapidly, so be sure to implement risk control and set reasonable stop-losses. #BTC☀