One, first dismantle the 'truth behind the 43% surge': it's not accidental! Two key supports have allowed SOL to soar.
SOL's ability to soar 43% and break through 195 USD and 206 USD targets is not due to luck, but rather the 'capital + ecology' dual driving force. These two key details hold the momentum for the rise:
1. Funds are flooding in, breaking targets depends on 'real money'
The most intuitive is the trading volume — during this period when SOL's daily line rose 43%, the 24-hour trading volume soared from 1.2 billion USD to 2.8 billion USD, more than doubling. Especially when it broke 195 USD, the single-hour trading volume surged to 320 million USD, 180 million USD more than usual; when it broke 206 USD, there was also a huge buy order of 450 million USD, pushing the price from 205.8 USD to 207.2 USD, not even giving the bears a chance to hesitate.
On-chain data can explain the situation better: in the past 7 days, whale addresses holding more than 1,000 SOL have collectively increased their holdings by 120,000 SOL (about 25.2 million USD), with an average cost around 192 USD, just before the rise started. These large funds are not 'blindly buying', but have recognized SOL's potential for growth. Their entry has not only supported the rise but also stabilized the market, giving SOL more confidence when breaking targets.
2. Ecological heat remains high, DeFi and NFT continue to 'generate revenue'
Behind the rise is SOL's ecology providing 'hard support' — even during the rise, the activity of DeFi and NFT has not faltered:
DeFi locked funds (TVL): increased from 14.5 billion USD to 15.8 billion USD, a weekly increase of 1.3 billion USD. The daily trading volume of the leading DEX Raydium has exceeded 300 million USD, up 25% from last month, indicating that DeFi users are still entering the market.
NFT market: Daily trading volume on the Magic Eden platform remains above 120 million USD, the newly launched NFT project 'Solar Verse' sold 8,000 pieces within 3 days of its launch, and the floor price rose to 1.1 SOL (about 226.6 USD), with player enthusiasm remaining undiminished.
DApp active users: the average number of active wallets has increased from 600,000 to 680,000, and the daily active users of the blockchain game 'Star Atlas' remain stable at over 150,000. Real demand continues to increase.
The ecology is the 'foundation' of SOL. The more users and active transactions, the more stable the price support. SOL's ecology is still 'generating revenue'; this 43% increase is just the beginning, and there is still greater upward space ahead.
Two, a 25% bullish continuation is not just wishful thinking! 212 USD is just a springboard, and 220 USD and 230 USD are also within reach.
Now the market is saying '25% bullish continuation', and many people wonder 'after a 43% increase, is it too exaggerated to rise another 25%?' But from a technical perspective and order book view, the target of 212 USD is very likely to be achieved, and it may even exceed expectations:
1. Resistance at 212 USD is 'not strong', and the order book shows signs of breaking through
Don't think 212 USD is the next target, its resistance is actually weaker than expected — on-chain data shows that the sell orders in the 210-212 USD range are only 2.2 million USD, while the buy orders in the 206-208 USD range are 5.8 million USD, the buying pressure is 2.6 times that of the selling pressure. As long as the price approaches 210 USD, it can easily break through 212 USD.
Moreover, in the past 3 hours, there have been 1.8 million USD in buy orders quietly entering around 208 USD. This capital is the 'vanguard for breaking 212 USD'. When SOL broke 206 USD before, there was also capital accumulating at 204 USD, then it broke through in one go. The current situation is almost identical; breaking 212 USD is just a matter of time.
2. After breaking through 212 USD, 220 USD and 230 USD are all 'in the bag'
If SOL can successfully break through 212 USD, the subsequent upward space will be completely opened up:
First target 220 USD: this is an 'integer level + psychological resistance', but on-chain data shows that there are few trapped positions near 220 USD, most are short-term profit positions. As soon as it rises to 218 USD, some profit positions will take profit early, making it easier to break through 220 USD;
Second target 230 USD: this is an 'extension of 43% increase'. According to the previous rising pace, each time a target is broken, it can drive a new wave of buying, and the target of 230 USD is not difficult to achieve.
Referencing SOL's rise in 2023: at that time, SOL rose from 120 USD to 160 USD, breaking multiple target levels, with each wave of increase exceeding expectations. Currently, SOL's momentum is even stronger than before, and the target of 230 USD is completely achievable.
Three, pullbacks are not 'risks', but rather hide 'entry opportunities'
Although SOL is currently surging, it doesn't mean it won't pull back — if a pullback occurs before breaking 212 USD, there's no need to panic. These pullback levels are all 'money-making opportunities':
1. First pullback level at 205 USD: recent support level, safest bottom-fishing
205 USD is the 'pullback support level' after SOL broke 206 USD. The previous two pullbacks to 205 USD were supported by buy orders, making it the 'safest bottom-fishing point'. If it pulls back to 205 USD, as long as it doesn't fall below 202 USD after entering, you can steadily wait for the breakthrough at 212 USD. Even if it doesn't rise in the short term, the risk is minimal.
Just like yesterday when SOL pulled back from 207 USD to 205.2 USD, those who entered at that time have already made a profit of 2.8 USD per unit. This kind of 'low-risk, high-reward' opportunity is much safer than chasing the highs.
2. Second pullback level at 202 USD: strong support level, low probability of falling through
If 205 USD doesn't hold, pulling back to 202 USD is nothing to fear — 202 USD is 'previous resistance now support', also at the 100-day moving average position. In the last 5 times it pulled back to 202 USD, it has not fallen through, the support is particularly strong.
On-chain data shows that there are 4.2 million USD in buy orders near 202 USD, which is more than at 205 USD. If it falls to this level, it is equivalent to 'picking up money'. When SOL fell to 202 USD before, those who entered made 4 USD per unit in just 3 days (rose to 206 USD). This time will be no exception.
Four, what should we do now? Different strategies for 3 types of people, don't miss this wave of surge
Facing the SOL's 'continuous breaking targets + bullish continuation' market, whether you are 'already holding', 'on the sidelines', or 'want to increase your position', seize the opportunity, don't wait until it rises high and regret:
1. For those already holding (entered below 200 USD): hold on, don't easily take profit
If you entered at 190-200 USD, you are currently sitting on a profit of 6-17 USD per unit. Don't think about 'taking profits', continue to hold:
Stop loss set at 202 USD, reduce position by 50% if it falls below; if it doesn't fall, do nothing;
Take profit in two steps: first look at 212 USD, reduce position by 20% when reached; then look at 220 USD, reduce position by 30% when reached; hold the remaining 50% for 230 USD, if it breaks 230 USD, hold on; if it doesn't break, clear it all;
Don't be affected by short-term fluctuations: it is inevitable to have pullbacks during the rising process. As long as it doesn't fall below key support, don't act rashly; otherwise, it will be easy to miss the subsequent gains.
2. For those with no position: wait for a pullback to 205 USD to enter, don't chase the high
If you are on the sidelines, don't chase the highs in the 208-210 USD range. Wait for a pullback to 205 USD to enter, which is the most prudent:
Entry point: 205-206 USD, position 25%;
Stop loss: 202 USD, if it falls below, recognize the loss because 202 USD is key support, breaking it indicates a deeper short-term pullback;
Target: first look at 212 USD, reduce position by 10% when reached; then look at 220 USD, reduce position by 10% when reached; hold the remaining 5% for 230 USD;
Don't wait for the 'perfect low point': SOL may break through 212 USD without a pullback. If you don't wait for 205 USD, just wait for a pullback to 210 USD after breaking 212 USD to enter; don't miss the opportunity.
3. For those wanting to increase their position: divide into 2 batches to control risk
If you want to increase your position, don't add it all at once; divide into 2 batches to respond to different situations:
First batch: add 15% position at 205 USD;
Second batch: add 15% position at 202 USD;
Keep 70% cash: on one hand to cope with extreme pullbacks, on the other hand, it allows you to increase your position after breaking 212 USD based on the situation, avoiding being passive with a full position.
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