First understand the market: it is not 'blindly bullish,' three details validate the bulls' confidence.
Many people are still struggling with the question of whether the 'pullback will continue,' but the details of SOL's market have already provided the answer—this pullback is not the 'end of the upward trend' but rather 'consolidation after a bullish washout.' Three key signals are sufficient to support the bullish logic:
1. The 185 support zone has 'volume contraction stop loss + bullish formation,' and the willingness of buyers to step in is strong.
Looking back at the low point of this pullback: when the price hit a low of 185 USDT, the 24-hour trading volume dropped sharply from the previous 60 million SOL to 38 million SOL, which is a typical 'volume contraction stop loss'—this means 'panic selling has been exhausted, and sellers lack the strength to continue crashing'; more critically, a 'hammer formation with a lower shadow twice the body' appeared on the 4-hour chart near 185, which is a classic signal of 'bottom stabilization' in technical analysis.
From the order book data, the buying volume in the 185-188 range has always been more than 1.5 times the selling volume: each time the price drops to around 186, there will be single orders of 100-200 SOL actively entering the market, and there are even instances of 'instant buys'—this is not retail investors randomly bottom-fishing, but rather capital intentionally defending the 185 support, further indicating 'this position is the bulls' bottom line and will not be easily breached.'
2. The price stabilizes at the key level of 188, just a step away from the 196-200 resistance.
Currently, SOL's price stabilizes at 188 USDT. It may seem like just a 'slight rebound,' but in reality, it signals that 'bulls are regaining control of the rhythm': 188 is not only the '50% Fibonacci level of this pullback' (the midpoint of the pullback from 178 to 199), but also 'the current position of the MA (25) moving average'—when the price regains above the MA (25), it indicates that the short-term trend has shifted from 'pullback' to 'oscillating upward,' with only 8-12 USDT of space left to the 196-200 resistance zone.
What's more noteworthy is that during the recent price rebounds to near 192, there has not been a 'large volume of sell-offs': previously during pullbacks, 192 was the 'concentration area for retail investors to take profits,' and each time it reached here, a significant number of sell orders would flood in; now, the selling volume near 192 has decreased by 40%, while more buying orders are waiting to enter—this indicates that 'market expectations for SOL have changed, and more and more investors are willing to position themselves around 190, waiting for a breakthrough at 200.'
3. The bullish structure remains intact, and the 200 level becomes the 'emotional explosion point.'
Despite experiencing pullbacks, SOL's 'mid-term bullish structure' has not changed at all: from the weekly chart, the price is still above the MA (50) moving average, and the weekly MACD red bars continue to expand; from the daily chart, the 'lower lows and higher highs' upward trend is clearly visible—this pullback is merely a 'minor episode in the upward process,' not a 'trend reversal.'
Moreover, the 200 USDT level is the 'emotional explosion point' for the entire market: on the one hand, 200 is a 'psychological key level,' and once broken, it will attract a large amount of 'follow-the-trend' funds, creating a 'buying resonance'; on the other hand, 200 is also the 'concentration area of previous trapped positions' (there were nearly 200 million USD of trapped positions near 200), and once this position is broken, it means 'the trapped positions are digested, and the bullish momentum will be fully released,' making it easy to push towards the 208-212 range.
Bullish strategy breakdown: entering at 187-192, taking profits in three stages to fully capture the market.
Since the bullish signals are clear, how to specifically lay out the strategy? This bullish strategy for SOL/USDT, from entry range to profit-taking and stop-loss, aligns with the market rhythm at every point, ensuring both 'low-risk entry' and 'maximized profit space':
1. Entry range: 187-192, capturing 'the safety cushion after the pullback.'
Choosing to enter this range has two core logics:
Support is solid: 187 is a 'buffer zone' for the 185 support level. Even if the price slightly retraces, it will not breach the stop-loss line, thus reducing psychological pressure after entering; 192 is where 'MA (25) and MA (50) intersect.' Entering here can leverage the support of the moving averages to increase the probability of an upward movement.
Cost is low enough: entering from 187-192, there is a space of 4-9 USDT to the first profit-taking point at 196, with a return of about 2.1%-4.8%. Even if only TP1 is achieved, decent short-term profits can still be obtained; if it can break through 200, the profit space will further expand to 12-25 USDT, with a return of 6.5%-13.4%, representing a 'low-risk high-return' layout.
It is recommended to 'enter in batches' during operations: for example, first enter 30% of the position near 188, if the price pulls back to 187, add 40% of the position, and wait with the remaining 30% near 192 for confirmation (confirming that 192 holds and trading volume expands), avoiding 'full position entry at once' that may be affected by market fluctuations.
2. Three-tiered profit-taking targets: from 'guaranteed profit' to 'speculative explosion,' taking profits in stages.
To avoid 'selling too early and missing out' or 'being too greedy and giving back,' we divide the profit-taking into three stages, each corresponding to different market nodes, flexibly adjusting but with clear targets:
TP1: 196 USDT—this is the 'first resistance level,' as well as the 'second highest point of the previous pullback.' From the entry range to here, the returns are stable and highly certain. After reaching the target, it is recommended to take profits on 40% of the position first, securing the 'basic profit'—on one hand, locking in profits, and on the other, avoiding subsequent pullbacks that would erode gains.
TP2: 204 USDT—If it breaks through 196 and holds, the next target is 204. This level is 'the extended resistance after the 200 integer level,' and also 'the 0.886 Fibonacci extension level of the previous rising trend' (the Fibonacci extension point from 178 to 199). When TP2 is reached, take profits on 30% of the position, at which point cumulative profits will have reached 12-17 USDT, with a return of 6.5%-9.3%.
TP3: 212 USDT—this is the 'core target for mid-term bullishness,' and also 'near the new highs of the past month.' If SOL can break through 204 and the trading volume continues to expand (for instance, if the 24-hour trading volume exceeds 80 million SOL), it indicates that bullish momentum is fully released, and it is highly likely to push towards 212. Upon reaching this target, clear out the remaining 30% of the position, maximizing the rebound profits—from entering at 187 to taking profits at 212, the profit can reach 25 USDT, with a return of 13.4%, equivalent to making 134 USDT from an entry of 1000 USDT, which is considered a 'big win' in short-term operations.
3. Stop-loss at 182 USDT: maintaining the 'trend bottom line,' with risks locked within a controllable range.
Setting the stop-loss at 182 is not 'arbitrary,' but based on a dual consideration of 'support logic + risk control':
Trend bottom line: 182 is the 'absolute low point of this pullback,' and it is also the 'position of the MA (50) moving average'—if the price falls below 182, it indicates that the 185 support has failed, and the short-term bullish structure has been broken. At this point, stop-loss and exit to avoid further losses.
Risk is controllable: entering at 187 and stopping at 182 calculates a maximum loss of about 2.7%; entering at 192 and stopping at 182 calculates a maximum loss of about 5.2%. According to the principle of 'risking 1-2% of funds per trade,' if entering with 200 USDT, the maximum loss would be 10.4 USDT. Even if it goes wrong, it won't be severely damaging, and there will still be opportunities to find the next chance.
Here’s a reminder: stop-loss is not a 'formality.' Once the price falls below 182 with significant volume, regardless of whether there is a rebound afterwards, the stop-loss must be strictly executed—previously, some investors held onto their positions because they 'thought there would be a rebound,' resulting in a drop from 182 to 175, expanding losses to 8.8%, and missing other opportunities.
Market outlook: breaking through 200 is a 'key step,' and 216+ is not out of reach.
From the current market, SOL's bullish logic not only has technical support but also benefits from 'fundamental ecological factors': recently, Solana's DeFi locked value has increased by 8%, NFT trading volume has rebounded by 12%, and developer activity remains high—these fundamental positives will become 'catalysts for breaking through the 200 level.'
If SOL can successfully break through 200 and hold, the subsequent market is likely to exceed expectations: on one hand, breaking through 200 will attract a large number of 'trend traders' to enter, quickly pushing prices toward 208-212; on the other hand, after breaking through 200, market expectations for SOL will shift from 'short-term rebound' to 'mid-term rise,' which may even attract institutional funds to enter, further pushing prices up to 216+ (near the new highs of the past two months).
Of course, potential risks cannot be ignored: if BTC experiences a significant pullback (for example, falling below 110,000 USD), SOL may be dragged down as well, leading to a failure to break through 200. Therefore, it is important to 'keep a close eye on BTC trends.' If BTC breaks key support, even if SOL has bullish signals, one should be cautious about entering or reduce position sizes.
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