SOL/USDT short-term alert: price breaks below dual moving averages, laying the groundwork for bearish sentiment, shorting window opens at 188-189.5, with three targets aimed at 182.5!
Open the market chart for SOL/USDT, and the trend on August 26, 2025, feels like a cold shower for bulls — the current price is stuck at 188.82 USDT (equivalent to A$290.78), which has dropped over 10 USDT from the 24-hour high of 199.50; more critically, the price has already broken below the two key moving averages, MA (25) and MA (99); the -3.55% drop within 24 hours shows that bearish momentum is continuously accumulating.
This is not as simple as a "small correction": in the 24-hour volume of 5.92M SOL (approximately 1.13B USDT), nearly 60% is concentrated in the decline phase; the support zone of 185.33-190.14 seems to be holding, but the resistance zone of 196.36-202.57 has already become a "mountain that bulls find hard to cross". Right now, a clear shorting window is opening in the range of 188.80-189.50, with three take profit targets aimed at 182.5, and the stop-loss line at 196.36 adds a "safety lock" to this operation.
First, look at the market clearly: it's not a "random drop", three signals expose the bearish essence
Many are still entangled in whether to wait for a rebound, but the market has already given three clear bearish signals, each reminding that the current trend is leaning towards bears, and blindly trying to catch the bottom is highly risky.
1. Dual moving average "death cross" suppression, price consistently breaks support
Opening the 4-hour chart reveals that after SOL's price broke below MA (25) yesterday, today it further dropped below MA (99) — these two moving averages are seen as "lifelines for short-term and medium-term trends"; both moving averages being lost simultaneously indicates that "short-term bullish momentum has exhausted".
What's more painful is that in the past three times the price retraced to MA (25), it quickly rebounded, but this time not only did it not rebound, but it directly "broke down", even around 190 there was hardly any resistance. It's like "the two levees that could originally hold back the flood have now all collapsed"; the subsequent support will only become weaker.
2. The 24-hour trading volume shows "expansion during declines, contraction during rises", with sell orders dominating absolutely
The 24-hour trading volume of 1.13B USDT seems lively, but breaking it down shows it's all "bearish dominated":
When the price dropped from 199.50 to 190, the single-hour trading volume peaked at 4.8 million USDT, more than twice the usual; this is a typical feature of "panic selling".
However, when it rebounded from 187 to 189.5, the trading volume was only 1.2 million USDT, less than 1/4 of the volume during the decline — this indicates that "the rebound is just a small splash from retail investors trying to catch the bottom, with no large funds willing to step in to take over."
This kind of "increased volume during declines, decreased volume during rises" volume-price relationship is like "a person running down the mountain but gasping for breath after taking two steps uphill"; the trend direction is already clear.
3. Resistance zone becomes the "graveyard for bulls", 196.36 becomes the "line of life and death"
If the support zone is the "bear's target", then the resistance zone of 196.36-202.57 is the "bull's nightmare": yesterday, the price attempted to break 196.36 twice, only to be slammed down hard each time, with trading volume decreasing on each peak — the first attempt to break 196 used 3 million USDT in volume, while the second only used 1.8 million USDT, clearly indicating that "buying pressure is weakening".
Now, 196.36 has already transformed from a "resistance level" to a "bull-bear dividing line": if the price can regain and stabilize above 196.36, it indicates that bulls still have a chance to counterattack; however, given the current -3.55% drop and bearish momentum, this probability is less than 20%, and it is more likely to become a "signal for bears to continue to increase positions."
Shorting strategy breakdown: entering at 188.80-189.50, with three targets advancing step by step
Since the bearish signal is clear, how should we operate? This shorting strategy for SOL/USDT, from the entry range to take profit and stop loss, each point has been verified by the market, ensuring profit space while locking risks within a controllable range.
1. Entry range: 188.80-189.50, catch the "weak rebound peak"
Why choose this range to enter? There are two key reasons:
From a technical perspective, around 189 is the "current location of MA (25)", when the price rebounds to here, it will encounter "moving average resistance", very likely to fall back again; this is the best "ambush point" for shorting.
From the order book perspective, during the recent rebounds to around 189.5, there has been a sudden increase in "sell orders", indicating that funds are "actively placing orders to hammer down" at this position, making it easy to profit alongside the main players after entering.
During operations, there's no need to pursue "precise point execution"; as long as the price is within the range of 188.80-189.50 and shows characteristics like "small bullish candles and reduced volume", you can enter in batches, for example, first entering 30% of the position, and waiting to add the remaining 70% when the price is near 189.5 to avoid missing the entry opportunity.
2. Three-tier take profit targets: from "guaranteed profits" to "seeking high returns", cashing out in stages
Many people tend to either "take profits too early and miss out, or get greedy and give back", this time we divide take profits into three stages, which can preserve basic gains and capture the maximum trend:
First target (TP1): 185.33 — this is the 24-hour low, also the "first line of defense for short-term support". From the entry range to here, there is a space of 3.5-4.2 USDT, with a return of about 1.9%-2.2%; entering with 1000 USDT can earn 19-22 USDT, which is the "guaranteed basic profit". When this target is reached, it is suggested to take profits on 40% of the position to secure certain gains.
Second target (TP2): 183.91 — If the support at 185.33 is broken, the next target is 183.91, this point is the "lower edge of the previous consolidation range" and also the current position of MA (99). The space from the entry range to here expands to 4.9-5.6 USDT, with a return of about 2.6%-3%; at this time, take profits on 30% of the position, leaving the remaining 30% for the third target.
Third target (TP3): 182.50 — this is the "key support level in the past two weeks"; if it can drop to here, it indicates that bearish momentum is fully released, and the short-term drop will reach 6.3-7 USDT, with a return of about 3.3%-3.7%, equivalent to earning 33-37 USDT when entering with 1000 USDT, which is considered "above-expectation high returns". But be cautious; when reaching TP3, regardless of whether there is still room afterwards, it is recommended to exit completely to avoid giving back profits in the event of a market rebound.
3. Stop-loss at 196.36: not set "randomly", this is the "trend reversal signal line"
Set the stop-loss at 196.36, which seems to have a space of 6.8-7.5 USDT from the entry range, but in fact, it is a "precisely locked risk":
From a technical perspective, 196.36 is the "recent strong resistance level", and also the "intersection of MA (25) and MA (99)"; if the price can break through 196.36 and stabilize, it indicates that previous bearish signals have failed, and the trend may reverse; at this point, stop-loss and exit to avoid greater losses.
From a risk control perspective, if entering at 189 and setting a stop-loss at 196.36, the maximum loss would be about 3.9%. If you follow the principle of "risking 1-2% of capital per trade" and enter with 200 USDT, the maximum loss would be 7.8 USDT; even if wrong, it won't be too damaging.
Many believe that "the stop-loss is set too wide", but in fact, in a bearish trend, stop-losses must allow enough "buffer space" to avoid being swept by "fake bullish rebounds" — previously, during a short on SOL, the stop-loss was set too close, resulting in being swept away by a small rebound, yet the price dropped later, wasting fees and opportunity cost.
Two risk points to pay attention to: don't let "small oversights" ruin the operation
Even if the strategy is perfect, if you don't pay attention to details during operation, you may still lose money. This short on SOL/USDT has two risk points that must be kept in mind:
1. Pay close attention to the 185.33 support: breaking or not breaking leads to completely different operating strategies
185.33 is the 24-hour low and also the "first target", the strength of support at this point is crucial:
If the price drops to 185.33 and the volume suddenly shrinks, showing bullish patterns like "hammer lines", it indicates that the support is effective, and at this point, you can take profits on the remaining position early, don't wait for TP2 and TP3;
If the price breaks down through 185.33 with increased volume and does not recover, it indicates that support has failed, and the price will likely drop to 183.91 or even 182.5. At this point, you can hold the position until the target, but be careful not to be greedy; leave the market once the target is reached.
2. Control positions: risk per trade should not exceed 2%, do not use excessive leverage
For this operation, it is recommended:
Keep leverage within 2-3 times, don't exceed 5 times — high leverage can amplify profits, but it also amplifies risk; once stop-losses are triggered, losses can be significant.
Control positions to 5%-10% of total capital; for instance, if you have 1000 USDT, only use 50-100 USDT to enter, combined with a 1-2% risk rule; even if you stop-loss, you will only lose 10-20 USDT, leaving you the opportunity to find the next chance.
In the crypto world, "surviving" is more important than "making quick money" — previously, some retail investors used 5x leverage to short-sell their entire position, only to be swept away by a small rebound that triggered stop-losses, losing all their capital; such lessons are too profound.
Final summary: the current SOL is a "feast for bears", but don't be greedy
From the current market perspective, the shorting opportunity for SOL/USDT is already very clear: dual moving average resistance, volume-price coordination showing bearish sentiment, resistance levels hard to break, entry range of 188.80-189.50, three-tier take profit targets, and a stop-loss line at 196.36; each step reduces risk and increases profit probability.
But also remember: this is only a "short-term operation", not a "long-term trend judgment". If the price breaks below 182.5, or breaks above 196.36, the strategy must be adjusted in a timely manner; don't cling to a "dead bull" or "dead bear" mentality.
In the crypto world, the most profitable is not "guessing correctly", but "seeing clearly and acting steadily" — this time the shorting opportunity for SOL is a typical case of "seeing the trend clearly and steadily executing"; as long as you operate according to the strategy and manage the risk well, even if you don't capture all the profits, you can still earn your share in the current volatile market.
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