One, first dismantle 'the truth of the upward channel': $200 is not the endpoint, $212 is the 'key throttle'.
Don't think that SOL rising to $200 means 'unable to rise further', the upward channel on the hourly chart has long given the answer — this wave of rising is 'rhythmic and supported', not random, three details can prove it:
1. 100-hour moving average 'supports the bottom', pullbacks don't go deep.
What best reflects SOL's strength is 'moving average support' — since the rebound from $188, the price has not dropped below the 100-hour moving average (currently at $198), each time it pulls back to around $205, there is a buying volume of $200,000 - $300,000 entering, directly pushing the price back above $208. For example, yesterday afternoon, when SOL pulled back to $205.5, before retail investors could react, a $500,000 large order pulled it back to $207, this is the dual protection of 'moving average + support level', it doesn't drop deep.
Comparing to the previous market: in 2023, when SOL started the upward channel at $120, it was also supported by the 100-hour moving average, rising for 10 consecutive days to $160, an increase of $40; the current trend almost replicates that time, as long as the 100-hour moving average does not break, the upward trend will not stop.
2. The upward channel is 'clearly outlined', supports and resistances are all clear.
Open the hourly chart of SOL, two lines can clearly outline the upward channel:
Lower boundary (support line): connecting the lows of $188, $195, and $205, every time the price touches this it rises, now the support level is at $205;
Upper boundary (resistance line): connecting the highs of $198, $208, and $212, now the resistance level is at $212.
This kind of 'rising within a channel' trend is the easiest to grasp: buy at the lower boundary ($205), wait for the upper boundary ($212) to see if it breaks; if not, reduce some positions, if it breaks, then add positions. For example, when SOL reached $205 two days ago, those who entered are now up $3 per coin; if it breaks $212, they can earn another $10 or more.
3. Trading volume 'increases during rises, decreases during falls', the bulls haven't run away.
To judge whether the upward trend can continue, trading volume is the 'touchstone' — this wave of SOL's rise perfectly conforms to the healthy pattern of 'increasing volume during rises and decreasing volume during falls':
From $188 to $200, hourly trading volume increased from $800,000 to $1.5 million, an increase of $700,000, indicating that buy orders are coming in.
When it pulls back to $205, hourly trading volume drops to $600,000, a decrease of 60%, indicating that selling pressure is decreasing, and no one is willing to sell.
This change in trading volume indicates that bulls are still in, not thinking of escaping, just temporarily resting, and will rush to $212 once they gather enough strength. If trading volume reverses to 'decrease during rises and increase during falls', that would be a signal of being unable to rise, there's no need to worry now.
Two, resistance levels are not 'roadblocks': $212, $215, and $220, after breaking through it is 'smooth sailing'.
Now everyone is focused on the resistance at $212, but don't think this is an 'insurmountable hurdle' — from the order book and historical trends, breaking $212 is just a matter of time, it may even 'break through in one go', three reasons can prove it:
1. The resistance at $212 has 'low selling pressure', breaking through only needs 'a spark'.
On-chain data shows that the sell orders in the $212-$215 range amount to only $2.8 million, less than the buy orders in the $205-$208 range ($4.5 million) — this means that as long as there are buy orders above $3 million entering, it can easily break $212. Moreover, in the last 3 hours, there have already been $1.2 million in buy orders queued near $210, just waiting for the price to approach.
Comparing to the previous scene when SOL broke $202: there were $3.2 million in sell orders in the $202-$205 range, but a single $4 million large order directly smashed through, rising to $208 in 30 minutes. Now, there are even fewer sell orders at $212, making the breakthrough easier.
2. After breaking $212, the resistance at $215 and $220 is 'easily overcome'.
Even after breaking $212, the resistance at $215 and $220 is not that strong:
$215: previously SOL peaked at $213, $215 is 'near the previous high', but the sell orders are only $1.5 million. After breaking $212, momentum can easily push past $215;
$220: is 'an integer barrier + psychological resistance', but from on-chain data, there are not many trapped positions near $220, most are short-term profit-taking positions. As long as it rises to $218, profit positions will take profits early, making $220 easier to break.
If it breaks $220, the next targets are $225 and $232 — $232 is the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the rise from $177 to $213, and is also the target for many institutions, at that time you can at least make $32 per coin (calculated from entering at $200).
3. Compared to ETH and BTC, SOL's 'independent market' has more explosive power.
Currently, Bitcoin is still oscillating in the range of $113,000 - $115,000, while Ethereum is bottoming out at $4,700 - $4,750, only SOL has taken the lead in breaking out of an upward channel — this kind of 'independent market' often has more explosive power, as funds will flow from oscillating coins to strong coins.
On-chain data shows that in the last 24 hours, $80 million has flowed from ETH to the SOL ecosystem, of which $40 million directly bought SOL spot, this capital is the 'fuel for breaking $212', as long as the funds continue to flow in, SOL's upward momentum will not stop.
Three, pullbacks are not 'risks': $205, $202, and $195, each support is an 'entry opportunity'.
Although SOL is strong now, it doesn't mean it won't pull back — if it doesn’t break $212, it may pull back to $205, $202, or even $195, but these support levels are all 'money-making opportunities', don't panic.
1. First support at $205: lower boundary of the upward channel, the safest bottom entry.
$205 is the lower boundary of the upward channel and also above the 100-hour moving average. Every time it pulls back to this level, large funds buy in, making it the 'safest bottom entry point'. For example, when SOL pulled back to $205.5 yesterday, three whale addresses each bought 5,000 SOL (about $1.025 million), with an average cost of $205, and they are already in profit of $3 per coin.
If it pulls back to $205, enter with 20% position, set the stop loss at $202 (3 dollars below the support level to avoid being shaken out), even if it breaks $202, the loss is only $3 per coin, risk is controllable; if it rises, it can make $7 per coin (up to $212), cost-effectiveness is extremely high.
2. Second support at $202: 38.2% Fibonacci level of the rise from $177 to $213, low probability of breaking.
If $205 does not hold, and pulls back to $202, there is no need to be afraid — $202 is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from $177 to $213, and is also a previous resistance level (now turned support), in the last three pullbacks to $202, it has not broken through, support is particularly stable.
On-chain data shows that there are $6 million in buy orders near $202, more than at $205, if it drops to this, it's equivalent to 'picking up money' — previously when SOL dropped to $202, those who entered made $6 per coin in 2 days (rising to $208), this time will be no exception.
3. Extreme support at $195: 50% Fibonacci level, breaking means 'buying the deep'.
If there is a market crash and SOL drops to $195, don't panic — $195 is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from $177 to $213, and is also a strong support level since June. Previously, when it dropped to $195, it rebounded, and each rebound could rise by $15-$20.
If it drops to $195, enter with 40% position, set the stop loss at $192, because $192 is the 'lifeline of the upward trend', breaking $192 indicates the end of the upward trend, otherwise $195 is the 'big bottom', entering at least can make $17 per coin (up to $212).
Four, technical indicators 'all green': MACD surging, RSI above 50, bullish momentum is still not resting.
Don't just look at the price, the technical indicators have long been 'calling bullish' — the MACD and RSI on the hourly chart are both indicating signals to 'continue rising', there's no reason to be bearish.
1. MACD is surging in the positive range, no top divergence has appeared.
The hourly MACD of SOL/USD is not only in the positive range (red bars), but also the fast line (DIF) is moving up and away from the slow line (DEA), and the red bars are also continuously lengthening — this indicates that bullish momentum is still strengthening, not 'at the end of its strength'.
Compared to the previous increase of SOL from $188 to $200, MACD red bars rose from 0.5 to 2.8, now the red bars have risen to 3.2, stronger than before, indicating the bulls are still in action and not thinking of resting. Only if MACD shows a 'top divergence' (price rises, MACD falls) would it be a signal to pull back, which is completely absent now.
2. RSI above 50, not yet in overbought zone, still has room for growth.
The hourly RSI is now at 58, in the 'neutral to strong' range, not yet in the overbought zone of 70 — this means SOL still has room to rise, not yet 'time to pull back'. Previously, when SOL rose to $213, RSI reached 68, close to the overbought zone, now with RSI at 58, it can at least rise by $10, approaching $210 before getting close to overbought.
Moreover, RSI and price rise synchronously, and there is no divergence of 'price rises, RSI falls', indicating that the upward trend is very healthy, not a 'fake rise'.
Five, what to do now? 3 types of people have different strategies, don't miss this wave of independent market.
Facing SOL's 'upward channel market', no matter if you are 'already holding', 'watching in cash', or 'wanting to add positions', there is a corresponding strategy, don’t regret waiting until $212 breaks.
1. For those already holding (entered below $200): hold on, don't get washed out by the pullback.
If you entered at $188-$200, you are now in profit of $0-$12 per coin, don't think about 'trading short for the price difference', just hold on honestly:
Set the stop loss at $202 (if it falls below $202, it indicates a deepening short-term pullback, reduce position by 50%; if not broken, do nothing);
Take profit in two steps: first watch $212, reduce position by 20% when reached; then watch $215, reduce position by 30% when reached; remaining 50% position watch $220, if it breaks $220, hold on, if not broken, clear out all;
Don't stare at the market: pullbacks within the upward channel are all 'shakeouts', the more you watch, the easier it is to get scared away. Wait for the breakout at $212 before watching.
2. Those in cash watching: wait for the pullback to $205 to enter, don't chase the high.
If you are in cash, don't chase high at $208-$210, waiting for the pullback to $205 is the safest entry.
Entry point: $205-$206, position 25%;
Stop loss: $202, if broken, acknowledge the loss, because $202 is a key support;
Target: First look at $212, reduce position by 10% when reached; then look at $215, reduce position by 10% when reached; remaining 5% position watch $220.
Don't wait for a 'perfect low point': SOL may not pull back and directly break $212. If you didn't enter at $205, wait for a pullback after breaking $212 to enter at $210, don’t miss out.
3. Those wanting to add positions: split into three batches, don’t go all in.
If you want to add positions, don't do it all at once, split into three batches to respond to different pullbacks:
First batch: add 15% position at $205;
Second batch: add 15% position at $202;
Third batch: add 20% position at $195;
Hold 50% cash: In case it drops below $192, there is cash to respond and also to buy the dip of other currencies.
The last truth: SOL's $200 is the 'starting point for charging at $232', not the 'endpoint'.
