In September, the crypto world stands at a thrilling crossroads — after the 'bomb' of the Fed's interest rate cut lands, will the market come to a sudden stop, or is it the beginning of a new wave of frenzy?

The market is in an uproar, but I dare say: the greater possibility is that we are standing on the threshold of a new market, and the script for the bull market is not yet complete!

Don't be fooled by the old saying that 'interest rate cuts = all good news priced in'. Too many people are holding onto the old map looking for a new path, thinking that the first interest rate cut is the end point. But take a look at the historical records: after the Fed's first interest rate cut in 2019, the US stock market rose by 18%; the interest rate cuts after the 2020 pandemic even directly triggered a super bull market in crypto. Interest rate cuts have never been a 'one-off benefit', but the key to unlocking liquidity — when the first drop of water flows out, it is often not the end, but the beginning of a flood.

Think about the recent flow of funds: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has increased its holdings for 12 consecutive days, Ethereum staking volume has surpassed 30 million units, and even the usually conservative sovereign funds have begun to quietly position themselves. These 'smart money' have long seen through it: interest rate cuts are not the end of the story, but the starting point for capital redistribution. When the 'faucet' of the dollar begins to loosen, those huge amounts of capital sitting idle will have to find a place to earn money — the ecological expansion of the crypto market over the past two years (with DeFi locked value exceeding 50 billion and Layer 2 users surging by 300%) has already paved the way for accommodating this capital.

To take a step back, even if the Fed remains steady in September, the market still has its back-up plan. Trump has already stated: 'On the first day in office, I will launch an epic stimulus plan.' Those in the know understand that this guy's 'stimulus' is essentially a disguised 'money release'. The infinite QE during his tenure directly pushed BTC from 3,800 USD to 69,000 USD. Now, with the election approaching, regardless of who takes office, 'maintaining growth' is the top priority, and the general direction of easing cannot change — it’s like installing a 'safety net' for the market, so that even in a big correction, there will be people willing to catch it.

What is even more disruptive to conventional understanding is that this bull market might truly break the 'four-year cycle' curse. Previous cycles were limited by the halving effect and the scale of funds, but now it's different: Bitcoin ETF daily transactions exceeding 1 billion USD has become the norm, and the deflationary mechanism after the Ethereum merge has started. Even Wall Street has begun to include cryptocurrencies in their 'cross-asset allocation models'. When a market shifts from a 'marginal toy' to an 'essential option' for institutions, its cycle is no longer determined by a single factor, but will follow the global liquidity cycle — this means the bull market may last longer than everyone expects.

Of course, September's volatility is inevitable. After the interest rate cuts, short-term funds are likely to 'run away first', and a 5%-10% correction in BTC and ETH is very normal; if there are no cuts, shorts will take the opportunity to slam the market and create panic. But these are all 'storms in a teacup' that won't change the overall direction — just like the 40% correction in May 2021, which looked frightening but was merely a 'breather' during the bull market.

For ordinary players, what should be done now is not to guess the peak or escape it, but to understand the 'new logic' of this round of market: shifting from 'speculating on expectations' to 'watching the ecosystem', from 'betting on news' to 'grasping the structure'. Those sectors with real user growth and the ability to generate cash flow (such as AI + blockchain, decentralized storage), even if they fluctuate in the short term with the market, can outperform in the long run.

The September meeting of the Federal Reserve is not the whistle of the end, but the starting gun for a new race. Don't be dizzy from the short-term fluctuations; the real big opportunities are often hidden in the panic and divergences of most people — this bull market may have just entered halftime!