On the early morning of August 26, ETH experienced a 'vertical plunge' — crashing from $4690 straight down to $4311, with 210,000 liquidations, $1.047 billion evaporated in an instant. This bloodbath had been foreshadowed.
I. Technical red flags are already flashing: 4295 is the line of life and death.
Don't blame the 'sudden crash', the 4-hour candlestick chart had signals hidden earlier:
Support turned resistance: $4295 was previously the 'bottom line' for three pullbacks, after being breached by bears in the early morning, programmed sell orders + leveraged liquidations caused a chain reaction, now it has become the 'roadblock' that must be overcome for a rebound;
Trend fully reversed: The descending trend line connecting the highs of 4680 and 4515 has been breached, the oscillation ends, and bears officially take control;
Indicators all collapsed: BOLL lower band breached, 20-day EMA has turned from support to resistance, RSI fell to 27 (oversold but not stable), short-term has entered 'bear market mode'.
II. Three heavy blows from the news: Who is dumping?
The crash is not caused by a single factor; three major bearish signals exploded simultaneously:
The Federal Reserve is changing its stance: Powell's speech caused the probability of a rate cut in September to plummet from 98% to 15%, the 'liquidity logic' behind this round of ETH's rise has been pulled from under.
Institutions quietly ran away: ETH spot ETF saw a net outflow of $196.6 million this week, after last week's $2.8 billion inflow was a fleeting moment, confidence shattered;
Regulatory pressure continues: Hong Kong's stablecoin regulations take effect, SEC delays approval for altcoin ETFs, coupled with a 0.9% drop in the Nasdaq, ETH, which is highly correlated, suffers collateral damage.
III. What's next? Short-term look at 4295, long-term 8000 is not a dream.
Don't rush to cut losses or buy the dip, analyze by cycles for clearer insight:
Short-term (within 1 week): 4295 is a 'battle for survival' — regain and increase volume (1-hour trading exceeds $250 million), can rebound to 4450-4550; if it can't hold, it tests $4000 (an area of institutional cost accumulation, has support).
Long-term (3-6 months): Fundamentals can hold up — BlackRock and Fidelity are still increasing their positions in ETH trusts, processing speed doubled after EIP-5005 upgrade, Layer2 daily active users hit a new high, Morgan Stanley even sees a market cap close to 80% of BTC by 2030, $8000 is not a pipe dream.
Trading advice: Short-term trial and error, don’t be greedy; long-term accumulate in batches.
Short-term traders: Light positions near 4295 to try for longs, stop loss at 4150 (risk manageable), target 4450-4550 then exit, don’t wait for 4600;
Long-term investors: Spot purchases can be done in batches, even participating in staking (annualized 3%-4%), the current NVT ratio shows ETH is undervalued, a deep fall presents an opportunity;
Everyone pay attention: Don't touch high-leverage contracts! Current sentiment is extreme, with 10x leverage, one fluctuation can lead to liquidation; capital is more important than 'betting on a rebound'.
This round of ETH plummet looks more like a 'pullback in a bull market' rather than a reversal. If 4295-4000 can stabilize, Q4 is highly likely to return to 5000, and reaching 8000 in 2026 is expected.
Discuss in the comments: Do you think 4000 can hold? Follow me for real-time rebound signals, buy the dip without falling into traps~#特朗普罢免美联储理事库克
