1. First, let's break down the "truth of consolidation": $199-200 is not "unable to rise", but is "preparation for a breakthrough".
Don’t think that SOL's fluctuations between $199-200 are "boring"; this consolidation phase is often the "preparation for a big move". Three details on the charts can provide clues:
1. Rebounding from $198 without looking back, support buy orders "increasing as it drops".
The most indicative of resilience is "shallow retracement" — previously, SOL dropped from $213 to $198, seemingly a drop of $15, but when it hit $198, a buy order of 5 million U popped up in the $198-200 range, directly pushing the price back to $199, not giving a chance for a deeper drop. Moreover, in recent days, whenever the price nears $199, there are mid-sized orders of 200,000 to 500,000 U coming in, not retail orders, but more like funds "accumulating by range".
Comparing with other altcoins, many of which have dropped 20% from their highs without rebounding, SOL has stabilized after a 7% drop and can still consolidate in the $199-200 range. This resilience itself is a "strong signal" — just like in 2023 when SOL consolidated from $195 to $200, after 3 days of grinding, it shot directly to $213. The current trend is almost a replica of that time.
2. Trading volume "shrinks but does not reduce momentum", the chips are becoming more stable.
The most feared thing during the consolidation phase is "increased volume dropping", but SOL is instead showing "stable volume reduction" — the 24-hour trading volume dropped from $230 million to $190 million, a decrease of 17%, but the price did not drop further, instead stabilizing at $199-200. What does this indicate? Selling pressure is decreasing, and the chips are becoming more concentrated. Those who wanted to sell have mostly sold, leaving behind "firm long-term holders" who won't easily sell unless there are special circumstances.
On-chain data is more intuitive: addresses holding more than 100 SOL have increased their holdings by 80,000 (around $16 million) in the past 7 days, and the number of addresses reducing their holdings has decreased by 30%. This indicates that the chips are transferring from short-term speculators to long-term investors. This structure of chips, once the resistance level is broken, can easily form a "short squeeze".
3. $213 is not a "false high point", but a "testing signal".
Previously, when SOL surged to $213 and then fell back, many people thought it was "unable to rise anymore"; in fact, it was a "test by the main force" — intentionally pushing up to see how much selling pressure there was in the $207-213 range. The result was clear: there were only $3 million in sell orders above $207, which is not much, indicating that there aren't many stuck positions. As long as there’s subsequent buying pressure, breaking through the $207 resistance is not difficult.
Just like in 2024 when SOL tested $205 before retracing back to $200, consolidating, and then breaking through $205 directly to $213; this time, after testing $213 and retracing to $199-200, it is essentially "cleaning up floating positions + testing selling pressure". Once the consolidation ends, breaking above $207 will be a natural progression.
2. SOL's "hardcore confidence": crushing ETH on-chain, $8 million silently buying up, the ecosystem is solid.
SOL can stabilize at $199-200 and is expected to push towards $300, which is not based on speculation, but on the three solid supports of "ecosystem + on-chain + funds", especially on-chain data, which directly crushes many mainstream coins:
1. DEX trading volume has exceeded ETH for 10 consecutive months, and ecosystem activity is explosive.
Opening the on-chain data is shocking: SOL's DEX monthly trading volume has exceeded ETH for 10 consecutive months! Last month, SOL's DEX trading volume reached $85 billion, while ETH was $78 billion, a difference of $7 billion — remember, ETH is the "DeFi big brother". The fact that SOL can outpace it for 10 consecutive months shows how hot its DeFi ecosystem is.
Looking at the projects more directly: the leading DEX Raydium's monthly trading volume has surpassed $20 billion, an increase of 25% from last month; the newly launched cross-chain DEX Solend attracted $1 billion in locked assets in just 3 days, with users eager to use it. Besides DeFi, NFTs and blockchain games are also thriving: the Magic Eden NFT market's monthly trading volume broke $5 billion, and the daily active users of the blockchain game Star Atlas remain stable at over 120,000. The money and people in the ecosystem have not decreased, but rather are increasing.
The ecosystem is the "root" of cryptocurrency — the more users there are, the more active the transactions, and the better the projects, the more stable the price support. The current activity in SOL's ecosystem can already compete with ETH, which is also the core confidence behind its push towards $300.
2. An $8 million large order has quietly entered the market; large funds have not stopped buying.
Don't think only retail investors are paying attention to SOL; big funds have already been quietly active — on-chain data shows that in the past 3 days, a wallet associated with Coinbase bought 40,000 SOL (about $8 million) in one go, with an average cost of $198.5, just at the recent low point; there are also 3 whale addresses holding over 100,000 SOL that have increased their holdings by 120,000 (about $24 million) in the past week, with the purchase prices all between $195-200.
These large funds are not "blindly buying" — they understand SOL's value better than retail investors: strong ecosystem, high on-chain activity, and possibly benefiting from ETFs. The current price of $199-200 is seen by them as the "low-price zone". Moreover, when SOL previously dropped to $195, it was also these whales entering the market, later bouncing back to $213. Now they are adding positions near $199, clearly optimistic about the subsequent breakout.
3. ETFs + long-term dual buff, future potential maximized.
In addition to the current ecosystem and on-chain advantages, SOL also has "long-term surprises" — one is ETF expectations: the pace of approval for U.S. crypto ETFs is speeding up, and SOL, as a mainstream coin, has been listed as a "potential ETF target" by multiple institutions. Once approved, a large influx of institutional funds will enter, directly pushing up the price; the second is long-term adoption: many traditional businesses are starting to use the Solana chain for payments and logistics tracking. For example, a certain cross-border e-commerce platform processed one million cross-border payments using the SOL chain last month, with real-world applications increasing.
Once these two "buffs" materialize, SOL's value will step up again — referencing the ETH ETF expectation trend, which rose from $3,800 to $4,800, an increase of 26%; if SOL can benefit from the ETF, combined with its ecosystem being realized, reaching $250-300 is truly not wishful thinking.
3. Technically, "hidden breakthrough signals": $207 is the "key barrier", breaking it will open up upward space.
Don't just look at SOL consolidating at $199-200; the technical aspects have long provided "positive signals", especially the $207 resistance level, which is the "lifeline" determining the subsequent trend:
1. The price is standing "above the dual moving averages", indicating the mid-term trend is intact.
The current price of SOL ($199) not only stands above the 50-day moving average ($197) but also above the 200-day moving average ($185) — the 50-day moving average is the "lifeline of the short-term trend", and the 200-day moving average is the "indicator of the long-term trend". The dual moving averages haven't been broken, indicating that the medium-term upward trend is still intact.
Comparing with previous market situations: In 2023, SOL consolidated above the dual moving averages before rising from $200 to $260; in 2024, after consolidating above the dual moving averages, it rose from $195 to $213. Every time the dual moving average support was effective, it led to a nice increase afterward, and this time is likely no exception.
2. RSI out of the oversold zone, MACD about to golden cross.
Technical indicators are also "prompting a breakthrough":
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Risen from 38 to 46, out of the oversold zone, slowly approaching the neutral to strong range, indicating that buying momentum is recovering, not "stagnant";
MACD: The white line is moving up towards the yellow line, and the green bars are continuously shortening. In 1-2 days, a golden cross is likely to occur. Once the golden cross forms, it will be a "clear bullish signal", greatly increasing the probability of breaking above $207.
In 2023, SOL rose from $200 to $260 after the MACD golden cross and RSI recovery, an increase of 30%; the current technical setup is very similar to that time, and the potential upward space after a breakout is worth looking forward to.
4. $207 resistance VS $198 support: breaking one will define the direction. What should we do now?
SOL's current market situation focuses on the "resistance at $207" and "support at $198". Before these two points are broken, it is a consolidation; after they are broken, it will be a new market situation. Make sure not to act recklessly:
1. Breakthrough at $207: Directly look at $250-300, don’t easily exit.
If SOL can break above $207 with increased volume (hourly trading volume exceeding 3.5 million SOL) and stabilize above $207 for 1 hour, it will initiate an "accelerated rise":
First target $220: This is the previous small high point, breaking it will open up upward space;
Second target $250: A short-term target favored by analysts and also the first take-profit level for many institutions.
Ultimate target $300: If ETF expectations heat up or if the ecosystem brings more good news, $300 is not impossible.
Just like in 2024 when SOL broke $205, it rose from $205 to $213 in just 3 days, an increase of $8; this time, breaking $207 might yield an even larger increase. Don't sell right after it breaks $207, as you might miss a significant market move.
2. Hold above $198: $199-200 is a good buying opportunity.
If SOL does not break above $207 and instead retraces to around $198, there’s no need to panic — $198 is the "recent low + 50-day moving average support", and the probability of holding is very high. Moreover, every time it hits $198, there are large funds buying, making this a "safe buying zone".
When buying the dip, don’t go all in; use 20% of your position to enter at $198-199, with a stop loss set at $195 (which is $3 lower than $198 to avoid being whipped out). If it drops to $195, then add another 10% position, controlling the average cost to around $196, which is more cost-effective than entering now.
5. What should we do now? Different strategies for 3 types of people; don’t miss out on consolidation opportunities.
Facing SOL's "199-200 knife integration", whether you are "already holding positions", "waiting with no positions", or "wanting to buy the dip", there are corresponding strategies. Don't regret it after the breakout:
1. For those already holding positions (entered below $200): Hold on, don’t get shaken out by volatility.
If you entered at $195-200 and are currently up $0-5 per SOL, don’t think about "doing short-term trades for price differences"; just hold on sincerely:
Set the stop loss at $195; if it doesn't break, don't move; if it does break, then reduce to 50% of your position.
Don’t stare at the chart: The fluctuations between $199-200 are "washing out weak hands"; the more you stare, the more likely you are to get scared off. Wait for a breakout above $207 before looking again.
Remember: the chips during the consolidation phase are the most precious. Once it breaks above $207, it will be difficult to buy again at prices below $200.
2. For those with no positions: wait for 2 signals, don’t miss out.
If you are holding cash, don't wait for a breakout above $207 to chase; you can lay out a small position now or wait for clear signals:
Signal 1: Retrace to $198, directly enter with 15% of your position, stop loss at $195;
Signal 2: Breakthrough $207 with increased volume, retrace to around $205, use 25% of your position to enter, stop loss at $202;
Don't wait for a "perfect low point": SOL may very well break through without retracing, and waiting for $195 might lead to missing out.
3. For those looking to add positions: add in batches, don’t go all in.
If you want to add positions, don't do it all at once; split it into 2 batches:
First batch: add 10% position at $199;
Second batch: after breaking above $207, add another 10% position at $205;
Keep 70% cash: In case it retraces to $195, you can add positions and respond to other opportunities.
If you feel helpless and confused in trading, and want to learn more about cryptocurrency and the latest news, click on the avatar to follow Lao Luo, and stop getting lost!
