1. First, break the '60 million selling pressure' conundrum: Are big players dumping to 'exit' or is there 'another plan'?
Don't be intimidated by this 60 million USD selling pressure; the underlying motives are key. Three details regarding the market and capital flow can help you see through the true intentions of big players:
1. If it is truly 'dumping and exiting': The market will show 3 'danger signals'
If big players are indeed selling without considering costs, there will be obvious signs of a bearish reversal, but it hasn't fully manifested yet:
Danger Signal 1: Volume breaks key support — ETH's current key support is at 4600 USD. If this level is breached and the hourly trading volume exceeds 3 million ETH (the highest selling pressure yesterday was 2.8 million ETH), it indicates that buying pressure is completely unable to hold, and the price will likely plunge to 4500 USD or even 4400 USD. However, there's still buying pressure near 4600 USD resisting strongly;
Danger Signal 2: Rebound without volume and continuous selling — If the price rebounds to around 4750 USD with a trading volume lower than during the decline (for example, hourly trading volume below 2 million ETH), and sell orders keep appearing, it indicates that buying interest is lacking, and it's mainly big players selling. However, during yesterday's rebound, the trading volume slightly increased, so it's not too bad;
Danger Signal 3: Continuous net outflow of funds — On-chain data shows that after the selling pressure appeared yesterday, there was a net outflow of 120 million USD from ETH. However, this morning, there was a return of 30 million USD in funds, indicating it's not a one-sided outflow, suggesting that big players aren't 'determined to leave'.
So, currently, it seems that big players are not entirely 'dumping and exiting', but rather testing the market's absorption capacity.
2. If it is just a 'washout to accumulate': the market will show 2 'positive signals'
If this selling pressure is a 'washout' by big players, a rebound is likely to follow, and two details can prove it:
Support buy orders haven't stopped: In the 4620 - 4650 USD range, there have been 2.2 million USD in buy orders over the past 3 hours. Each time the price drops to 4630 USD, there are 300,000 - 500,000 USD in buy orders, resembling a significant fund taking the opportunity to 'scoop up deals' rather than retail investors.
The technicals haven't broken key levels: Although the price has been smashed, it still stands above the 5-day moving average (4650 USD). The MACD hasn't produced a death cross, just a weakening of momentum, and the RSI is in the neutral zone at 45. These are all signals that 'the mid-term trend isn't broken', resembling the washout trend after ETH dropped from 4800 USD to 4650 USD in 2024, where it rebounded to 4900 USD after two days.
In this case, yesterday's crash looks more like a 'feint'; as long as 4600 USD holds, once buying pressure accumulates, the upward trend can resume.
2. ETH's 'Confidence': Even under a selling pressure of 60 million, it can remain stable, relying on ecological 'hard support'
Don't just look at the price drop; ETH's ability to remain stable under the 60 million selling pressure, unlike other altcoins which have deeply declined, relies on its 'ecological fundamentals' — the enthusiasm for DeFi, NFTs, and DApps has not diminished, which is key to supporting investor confidence:
1. The DeFi + NFT dual engines have not stalled; funds have not truly withdrawn.
Opening ETH's ecological data shows that even with price fluctuations, core business is still growing:
DeFi Locked Value (TVL): Currently at 28 billion USD, only down 500 million USD from last week. The daily trading volumes of the leading DEXs 'Uniswap' and 'Curve' remain above 800 million USD, indicating that DeFi users haven't fled, and funds are still circulating within the ecosystem;
NFT Market: The daily trading volume of 'CryptoPunks' and 'Bored Ape Yacht Club' has not declined, and even a new NFT project 'Ethereal Art' sold 5000 units on its launch day, with the floor price rising to 1.2 ETH (about 5640 USD); the enthusiasm of NFT players remains high;
DApp Active Users: The average daily active wallets number 850,000, which is 80,000 more than last month. The daily active users of the blockchain game 'Axie Infinity' remain stable at over 150,000, indicating that real demand hasn't decreased.
The ecosystem is ETH's 'ballast' — as long as DeFi, NFTs, and DApps remain active, funds won't truly leave, and even if prices drop, they can bounce back. This is why ETH is more stable than other altcoins.
2. Institutions haven't fled and are still buying in the 4600 - 4650 USD range
More crucially, 'large funds aren't panicking' — on-chain data shows that in the past 24 hours, whale addresses holding over 1000 ETH not only haven't reduced their holdings but instead accumulated 80,000 ETH (about 370 million USD) in the 4600 - 4650 USD range, with an average cost of 4625 USD, which is lower than the current 4700 USD.
These whales are not fools; if ETH were truly going to plummet, they wouldn't be buying at this level. Their willingness to enter now indicates they believe in the 4600 USD support, seeing this pullback as an 'opportunity to enter'. Moreover, when ETH previously dropped to 4600 USD, it was these same whales buying, and it later rebounded to 4800 USD. The current actions mirror those past behaviors.
3. Technicals 'Hide Hope': RSI Neutral, MACD hasn't turned bearish; if 4600 USD holds, there could be a rebound
Don't be scared by the superficial data of the 'plunge'; the technical signals aren't that bad and instead hide 'hope for a rebound':
1. The price is above the moving averages; the mid-term trend isn't broken.
ETH's current price (4700 USD) is still above the 5-day moving average (4650 USD) and the 20-day moving average (4580 USD) — the 5-day moving average is the 'lifeline of the short-term trend', and the 20-day moving average is the 'indicator of the mid-term trend'. As long as these two moving averages hold, the mid-term upward trend remains intact.
Comparing to previous pullbacks: In 2024, when ETH dropped from 4800 USD to 4650 USD, it also stood above the 5-day moving average, and later rebounded to 4900 USD. In 2023, when it dropped from 4700 USD to 4550 USD, it similarly held above the moving average and quickly surged to 4800 USD. The current situation resembles these two instances, with the moving averages still supporting it; a rebound is just a matter of time.
2. RSI neutral, MACD hasn't turned bearish; selling pressure is quickly depleting.
Technical indicators are also releasing 'positive signals':
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 45, in the neutral zone (30 - 70). Although it is slightly tilted downward, it hasn't dropped to the oversold zone at 30, indicating that selling pressure hasn't reached its peak. A slight dip may trigger a rebound;
MACD: Although momentum is weakening, there hasn't been a death cross (the white line hasn't dropped below the yellow line), and no significant green bar expansion has occurred, indicating that 'momentum is just temporarily insufficient, not a trend reversal', similar to a car slowing down; it's not stalled.
In 2023, every time ETH's RSI reached the 40 - 45 range and the MACD hadn't turned bearish, a rebound would occur; this time is likely no exception.
4. 4600 USD support VS 4750 USD resistance: Breaking either will determine the direction. What should we do now?
Currently, ETH's market situation depends on the two key levels: '4600 USD support' and '4750 USD resistance'. Breaking either would clarify the direction, so don't make hasty moves until then:
1. Hold above 4600 USD: First look for a rebound to 4750 USD, then aim for 4800 USD.
If ETH can hold above 4600 USD and shows a 'volume stabilization' signal (for example, hourly trading volume exceeds 2.5 million ETH, and prices do not set new lows), it will likely rebound in two steps:
Step One: First, break the 4750 USD resistance — this was 'previously a support level that has now turned resistance', but as long as there is buying volume (hourly trading volume exceeds 3 million ETH), it can easily break through;
Step Two: After breaking 4750 USD, the target will aim for 4800 USD — this is 'the previous small resistance point'; breaking it opens the path to 4900 USD or even 5000 USD.
Just like in 2024, after ETH held above 4600 USD, it first surged to 4750 USD, then to 4800 USD, gaining 200 USD; if it holds above 4600 USD this time, the increase may not be less than last time.
2. If it falls below 4600 USD: It may drop to 4500 USD in the short term, but don't panic
If ETH breaks below 4600 USD and the trading volume increases (hourly trading volume exceeds 3.5 million ETH), it may drop to 4500 USD in the short term, but there's no need to panic — 4500 USD is 'a strong support level over the past two months'; it rebounded the last two times it hit 4500 USD, and this time is likely to hold as well.
And even if it drops to 4500 USD, it is still 'a better bottom-fishing opportunity' — the support at 4500 USD is stronger than at 4600 USD, and whales may increase their accumulation at this level. By that time, the cost of entering will be lower than now.
5. What should we do now? Different strategies for three types of people; don’t act impulsively.
In the face of ETH's 'sharp rises and falls', whether you are 'already holding', 'on the sidelines', or 'looking to bottom-fish', there are corresponding strategies; don't let emotions lead you.
1. For those already holding (entered above 4700 USD): Don't cut losses; set a stop-loss at 4630 USD
If you entered the market at 4700 - 4800 USD and are currently facing a loss of 100 - 200 USD per unit, don't rush to cut your losses:
Set the stop-loss at 4630 USD (30 USD higher than the 4600 USD support to avoid being liquidated), if it falls below, reduce your position by 50%, if not, hold on;
Don't add to your position: It's still volatile; adding will only increase risk. Wait until it breaks 4750 USD to add.
Don't stare at the screen: After setting your stop-loss, focus on what you need to do. Watching the fluctuations between 4680 - 4720 USD will only make you more anxious and lead to erratic actions.
2. For those on the sidelines: Wait for 2 signals; don't buy randomly in the 4680 - 4720 USD range.
If you're holding cash, don't randomly buy in the 4680 - 4720 USD range; wait for two clear signals:
Bottom-fishing signal: ETH holds at 4600 USD + rebounds on increased volume to above 4650 USD (hourly trading volume exceeds 2.5 million ETH), enter around 4650 USD, set a stop-loss at 4600 USD, target 4750 - 4800 USD;
Chasing signal: ETH breaks through 4750 USD with volume (hourly trading volume exceeds 3 million ETH), pull back to around 4720 USD to enter, set stop-loss at 4690 USD, target 4800 USD;
No signals yet: If you're on the sidelines, hold cash; cash is the most valuable in a volatile market.
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